The invasion of the Iraqi Parliament by sympathizers of the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr exposes – and worsens – the fragile foundations of the country’s political system. The situation threatens its lame democratic walk and, if it continues to worsen, could lead to violent days on the banks of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.
Hundreds of pro-Sadr protesters took over parliament on the 30th in protest against rival groups’ attempts to form a government, after the cleric won the most seats in October’s elections. Until this Saturday (6), they remained throughout the so-called green zone, a fortified area in central Baghdad, demanding a new election and amendments to the Constitution.
There is a religious component to the dispute. Both the cleric Sadr and his rivals aim to represent the Shia community, the country’s majority branch of Islam. But the crisis is not one of faith. It has to do with a sectarian government structure created after the 2003 US invasion and with Iran’s efforts to influence the course of this important Middle Eastern country.
Sadr is now one of the most important people in Iraqi politics. He is able to build and destroy governments. 20 years ago, however, when the United States invaded the country, the clergyman was a faded figure. He inherited political capital from his father — Ayatollah Muhammad al-Sadr, who died in 1999 — and mobilized Iraqis to resist the American occupation.
With his head always covered by a turban, Sadr gained esteem because, unlike other politicians, he did not leave Iraq during the bloody US invasion. He went on to inspire crowds with a populist speech, in a country impoverished by conflict and economic sanctions.
Sadr also distinguished himself by criticizing not just the US but also Iran, the great Shia power. The effective message was that Iraq should not be anyone’s puppet.
In last October’s elections, Sadr’s movement took 74 of Parliament’s 329 seats. The bloc of Iran-allied Shia groups, known as the Coordinating Structure, received just 17 seats. Despite the victory, Sadr was unable to form a government with the other forces, in part due to boycotts by rival factions. Furious, the cleric’s group left Parliament in June.
With Sadr’s withdrawal, the pro-Iran Shi’ite bloc began to move to form its own government and crown a prime minister — in the current Iraqi system, the post always goes to a Shiite. It was the attempts to elect pro-Iran Muhammad al-Sudani that ignited the ire of Sadr’s followers. With ropes and chains, they tore down concrete walls in the government compound. Clashes with security forces left 125 wounded, and Parliament was taken.
In response, groups linked to the Coordinating Structure began to protest as well. As both sides control armed militias, the fear is that the tension will escalate to violence.
In the meantime, the political impasse is hampering the functioning of the government, which in mid-year has not yet approved a budget for 2022. Despite its oil reserves and the end of the immediate threat from the terrorist organization Islamic State, Iraq is starving and lacks water and electricity.
As with other populist leaders around the world, Sadr’s speech is marked by contradictions. Despite criticizing the system and calling for a new, less corrupt political order, he benefits from the state of affairs. His followers hold government positions, for example.
The headstrong Sadr is one of the few people in Iraq — apart from Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, a major Shia religious authority — capable of mobilizing the masses. He has millions of followers, a militia and a financial empire. What Sadr doesn’t yet have is a government, which he demands now.
