Analysis of satellite images of the Saki airbase off the coast of Crimea annexed by Russia in 2014 shows that the site was the target of a very precise attack on Tuesday (9).
Moscow so far only admits an explosion in an arms depot, but everything indicates that Ukraine has opened a new chapter in the war with its neighbor, which began with the invasion of Vladimir Putin on February 24, with consequences that are still unpredictable.
The photographs released by the company Planet Labs show the base on Tuesday, before the attack, and on Wednesday (10). It is possible to count the destruction of at least five Su-30 multirole fighters and six Su-24 bombers, which is equivalent to perhaps half of the aircraft stationed there for patrol in the Black Sea.
These are aircraft used in the war effort against Ukraine, as well as Il-76 heavy transport models. More important than their destruction is the way suggested in the photos: they were hit quite accurately, and the nearest Ukrainian military position is 320 km away.
Kiev does not have the means to do so with its known inventory of missiles, and its planes would not penetrate Russian defenses with impunity. So the obvious suggestion is that the US or other members of NATO (Western military alliance) provided some sort of satellite-guided munitions to Ukraine.
The distance, however, could make it easier to see the arrival of missiles. A smaller drone may have been used or, in a less likely case, saboteurs may have acted. All this raises the bar in terms of military confrontation between Moscow and the West, although it is not known which weapon was used in the attack. At least one person died, and 13 were injured.
One way or another, the fact that Russia downplays what happened indicates a political assessment of the episode, in addition to the obvious propaganda issue. Something similar happened with the sinking of the heavy cruiser Moskva in April.
Flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, based 70 km south of the Saki base, she was likely hit by anti-ship missiles. The Kremlin, however, maintains that there was an accidental explosion. The attack on the base is militarily much more important than the sinking of the ship, which played an almost figurative role in the war.
The other possible conclusion is that Kiev is feeling safe to strike a direct blow against territory that Russia considers its own. Eight years ago, after Ukraine’s pro-Moscow regime was overthrown, Putin promoted the secession of mostly Russian-speaking Crimea — in effect, a historic Russian area until 1954.
when the Sheet visited the region in 2019, he verified a majority support of the locals for Russia, except for the Tatar minority. So much so that there was no civil war there that marked the same separation movement in Donbass, eastern Ukraine that is at the origin of the current conflict.
So far, there have been occasional attacks by Ukraine on southern Russian border regions, but nothing like Wednesday’s action. Kiev, as in the other cases, does not claim responsibility but jokes about the situation: the Twitter account of the Ukrainian Armed Forces suggested that the “summer is hot” on the Crimean coast.
It’s a provocation: the region’s coast is famous for its beaches, such as those near Novofederovka and Eupatoria. Videos taken in the region, attested by analysts to be true, showed bathers in panic with columns of smoke rising from the base next door. Queues of cars with residents of the region were also filmed heading towards mainland Russia.
President Volodymyr Zelensky, in turn, said again that the war will only end with the return of the peninsula to the control of his country. Diplomatically, even Kiev’s allies consider Crimea in Russian hands a fait accompli, given the absorption work and perhaps $5 billion spent on infrastructure.
The current counter-offensive planned by Kiev against Russian-controlled areas in southern Ukraine is aimed at re-establishing a favorable position for future action against Crimea.
