Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taipei is the beginning of a new, uncertain chapter in US-China relations over Taiwan.
Analysts differ on the balance of the visit. Many are quick to call it a great success — and perhaps the risky mission will be seen as a star on the lawmaker’s résumé among the US domestic public, whose anti-China sentiment is at historic heights.
However, in addition to possible personal gains for the powerful Speaker of the House of Representatives, and even an image for the Democrats, it is necessary to broaden horizons and assess the impact of the adventure on international stability.
Beijing’s immediate response came in the form of measures in eight areas, including military exercises with live ammunition, suspending climate dialogue with the US and halting military interactions, undermining valuable existing channels of communication.
The military trials, which Beijing has promised to keep, included a siege of Taiwan, suggesting it could blockade the island if the situation deteriorates. Beijing now finds itself with a justification — or a pretext — to legitimize its advances.
This week, at the end of the maneuvers, the Chinese authorities published a position paper, a “white paper”, on Taiwan, with their view on the matter. This is the third document of this nature on the island; the last one dated from 2000.
Officially, China advocates peaceful reunification, but does not give up the possibility of using force if necessary. As a way to combat resistance in Taiwan, Beijing promotes the “one country, two systems” formula. “After peaceful reunification, Taiwan will be able to preserve its current social system and enjoy a high degree of autonomy, in accordance with the law. The two social systems will develop side by side for a long time,” the document said.
Similar commitments were made when Hong Kong was returned to China by the British in 1997. Today, however, the formula suffers from a credibility deficit, after having worked reasonably well for more than 20 years. To quell months-long protests in 2019, Beijing suppressed many existing freedoms, with the help of a national security law.
The Hong Kong precedent now plays against the Chinese effort to convince Taiwan.
Also, unlike the other two white papers on Taipei, the current document eliminates reference to the promise that Beijing would not send troops to the island after reunification. It is about recalibrating the offer, in the light of a context that is becoming more complicated.
At the same time, suspicions affect not only Chinese promises. Washington’s guarantees suffer from the same ailment. The disastrous exit from Afghanistan last year has raised doubts about the credibility of US security pledges. US allies ate dust at Kabul airport as the hastily departed. Now, in the context of the Ukrainian War, however imperfect the comparison, US support for Kiev — with weapons but not with troops — is also a matter of concern in Taiwan.
Pelosi’s visit served to stir up tempers, fuel distrust and affect a fragile balance that, for more than 40 years, managed to avoid war in the Taiwan Strait region. Those who evaluate the results looking only at US domestic policy only see what they want. Is Taiwan safer because of the visit? The countries in the region? How much more stable is the international order after the Pelosi tour?
