Brazil’s biggest trading partner and central piece in the global chess, China is a notable absence in the foreign policy projects of the main Brazilian presidential candidates. The Asian giant was left out of the programs presented by the four candidates ahead in the dispute according to the latest Datafolha survey.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) talks about working for the construction of a new global order. Jair Bolsonaro (PL) mentions Asia in the first pages of the program filed with the TSE, stating that the enrichment of the continent’s population has pressured the economic growth of Western countries. But neither they nor the other candidates — with the exception of Sofia Manzano (PCB) — cite China directly.
Analysts are divided on the gap involving the leading role in the Ukrainian War and increasingly sharp rival to the US – Brazil’s second largest trading partner. Tatiana Berringer, a professor at the Federal University of ABC, where she is a member of the Brazilian Foreign Policy and International Insertion Observatory (Opeb), sees it as a mistake that the programs do not address the issue.
After all, she says, a good foreign policy starts with a realistic assessment of the international situation and a country’s capabilities to enter it. “It’s impossible not to talk about China,” she says. “Perhaps the candidates did this to avoid entering into the ideological dispute of Sinophobia. But the issue lacks debate, and I think it will appear in the media and in the very clashes between them.”
Under Bolsonaro, there were moments of tension with Beijing, with attacks made by members of the government and the president’s surroundings — notably his son Eduardo (PL-SP) — and responded to by the then Chinese ambassador to BrasÃlia, Yang Wanming.
Researcher Wesley Sá Teles Guerra, coordinator of the Galician Observatory of Lusofonia, considers that not referring to Asians would be a form of caution; a mention of the country, according to him, could be read by the international community as a manifestation of direct alignment or support.
The absence of the topic is not, however, the only common denominator between the plans for diplomacy of the presidential candidates with more than 1% of voting intentions, according to Datafolha — the two already mentioned, plus Ciro Gomes (PDT), who dedicates a few lines to foreign policy in her program, and Simone Tebet (MDB).
The four propose to strengthen Brazil’s participation in world forums and multilateral organizations — Bolsonaro’s rivals talk about returning international prestige and prominence to diplomacy. They are also committed to a rapprochement between Brazil and its neighbors in South America and defend sustainable development and environmental preservation policies.
The proposals, which might sound predictable, do not cease to surprise when they come from the candidate for reelection. Analysts point out that they are much closer to the classic guidelines of Brazilian diplomacy than to the politician’s program at the time he was elected and to practice in the last four years.
The 2018 plan advocated moving away from what it called “murderous dictatorships”, notably Venezuela, and drawing closer to the US and Israel, “important democracies” that would have been despised and attacked in PT governments.
For Gustavo Rocha, a doctor in political science from the Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), the text of the plan for the possible reelection of the president is permeated by typical Bolsonarism rhetoric.
An excerpt from the program states, for example, that “the president sought robust interaction with democratic nations, in balance with our universalist vocation.”
In practice, his administration was marked by a relationship with the United States under Donald Trump, criticized by critics as vassalage and by his rapprochement with authoritarian leaders. Bolsonaro has already called brothers Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, accused of ordering the murder of a journalist critical of his regime, and Viktor Orbán, the prime minister who is leading Hungary on an authoritarian escalation.
This kind of discursive shift in Bolsonaro’s plan can be explained, among other things, according to Rocha, by the replacement of Ernesto Araújo, with a strident profile, by Carlos França, seen as more technical, in charge of the Itamaraty.
The search for a certain pragmatism also included an attempt at approximation with Joe Biden in the USA. In the words of Berringer, from the Federal University of the ABC, when Trumpism fell, so did a so-called “alliance of Occidentalism”—for her, this perception, coupled with the fact that the previous rapprochement with Washington did not translate into tangible economic gains, led to adjustments.
The biggest divergence between the four presidential candidates, and perhaps the point that best reveals the contrasts between the economic models they propose, seems to be their entry into the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development), the so-called club of rich countries.
Bolsonaro dedicates an entire section of his plan to joining the entity, which this year gave the green light to Brazil’s candidacy. The president’s government plan argues that joining the organization would act as a kind of seal of good practices and encourage agreements with developed nations — a claim echoed by Simone Tebet and Felipe d’Avila (Novo).
Nelson Marconi, coordinator of Ciro’s campaign, says that the candidate also defends prioritizing relations with developed countries, since they would allow technology transfer, an important aspect in the development program proposed by the pedetista. But he considers some of the conditions for joining the OECD harmful to Brazil.
Lula, in turn, does not mention the entity in his government plan. But Celso Amorim, former chancellor and PT’s main adviser for international affairs, has already stated in interviews that being part of the OECD is not only not a guarantee of foreign investment, but would not bring great benefits to Brazil.
Lula’s program seeks to rescue “active and haughty diplomacy”, strengthening relations with the Global South and with the BRICS countries – as SheetPT has already sought out foreign ambassadors and defended the bloc’s work with China, Russia, India and South Africa in the search for a solution to the Ukrainian War and the reinsertion of Brazil into the international arena.
The analysts heard by Sheet they see the proposals of the main candidates as more in tune with current emergencies — while other plans, especially those of the most left-wing parties, such as the PCB and PSTU, sound disconnected in relation to the conjuncture, even though they address issues ignored by the others.
Highlights in the top candidates’ plans for diplomacy
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT)
- Recover Brazil’s leading role in foreign policy, strengthening Mercosur, Unasur, Celac and Brics and expanding national participation in multilateral organizations in general
- Rebuild international South-South cooperation and promote the integration of Latin America and the Caribbean, in order to reinforce local security and develop the region in sync
- Resume and expand public policies for the Brazilian population abroad and their citizenship rights
Jair Bolsonaro (PL)
- Intensify exchanges with countries around the world through agreements and participation in international bodies
- Increase investment in the Armed Forces
- Reduce external dependence by defining strategic areas to invest in, such as energy security (amid the effects of the Ukrainian War)
- Proceed with the OECD membership process
- Develop the region with sustainability and respect for indigenous people as a reference
Ciro Gomes (PDT)
- Increase exports of manufactured goods
- Prioritize agreements with developed nations, aiming at technology transfer
- Return to exercising a non-impositional and integrated leadership role in South America and strengthen not only commercial but cultural ties
- Join forces with South American countries to improve border surveillance and form cooperation from the point of view of exchanging information
Simone Tebet (MDB) 
- Formulate and implement a plan to gradually reduce customs tariffs and eliminate non-tariff measures and trade negotiations with an emphasis on market access
- Promote physical integration and infrastructure investments in South America and consolidate Mercosur
- Use an extensive network of diplomatic representations abroad to facilitate bilateral flows of people, goods, services, investments and technologies
