Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has long wanted a new operation in Syria. However, something seems to be changing. A comment by Ronald Maynardous.
By Ronald Mainardus
While this week the eyes of international public opinion were focused on his visit President Erdogan in Ukraine, significant developments are taking place in Turkey’s policy towards Syria. For days now, the signs of a possible fundamental change in Turkey’s strategy have been increasing. The chorus of representatives of the ruling party who support a reconciliation with the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad sounds louder and louder. The starting signal for this campaign was given by Mevlut Cavusoglu, the Turkish foreign minister. A few days ago he said that a balance must be achieved between the opposition and the regime in Syria.
This is completely new rhetoric from Ankara. Until recently, it seemed like it was only a matter of time before the Turkish military once again advanced into the northern part of the country and seized more territory there. In May, Erdogan announced a new offensive. So far this has not happened. THE Russia and Iran, Erdogan’s most important allies on the Syrian issue have made it clear that they oppose a new war. The fact that the US and more recently Germany’s foreign minister have also warned against the Turkish military advance plays a secondary role in Erdogan’s calculations. What is decisive for him is Putin’s mandate. Moscow is pushing behind the scenes for a review of Turkey’s policy in Syria and for the restoration of relations between Ankara and Damascus. The normalization of these relations would be a spectacular liberating step for the internationally isolated Syrian regime. Above all, the Russians would benefit from upgrading their most important ally in the Arab world.
Erdogan’s calculations
However, the rifts run deep. Damascus insists on the withdrawal of the Turkish occupation forces in the northern part of the country. Ankara demands the dissolution of the autonomous authorities, in which the Kurds play a central role. Above all, Turkey insists on the return of a large number of Syrian refugees who have found a second home in Anatolia. Most of the three and a half million refugees have long been the subject of a partisan dispute. Erdogan’s Syria policy is largely driven by domestic calculations. Almost no issue is better suited to mobilize the world than a war against the Kurds on the other side of the border. Pollsters have found that an invasion of Syria would bring Erdogan’s party 3% to 4% increase at the polls.
Meanwhile, small-scale fighting continues in the Turkish-Syrian border area. Peace is not in sight – and not very likely in the near future. The causes of conflict in the region run too deep to be resolved by a political transaction between Putin and Erdogan.
* Dr. Ronald Maynardous is a political analyst and commentator and ELIAMEP’s main Researcher. In the mid-90s he was director of the Greek editorial office of Deutsche Welle.
DW – Ronald Mainardus
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