Russian firepower is exhausted and Ukraine can regain territory, General Ben Hodge, former commander of US forces in Europe, told DW.
THE Ben Hodge he is considered a highly experienced military man. Before assuming command of US military forces in Europe, based in Wiesbaden, Germany, he had served in Iraq, Afghanistan and at the NATO headquarters in Izmir, among other places. He believes that Russia presents noticeable weaknesses in supply, which can be fatal. To make it easier to understand, he refers to an example from World War II, when the German army, after its sweeping defeat in Stalingrad, he was trying in vain to regroup, under the instructions of Field Marshal Erich von Manstein. “On the eastern front the Wehrmacht had been forced to deploy hundreds of thousands of troops just to guard the railroads in Ukraine and Belarus,” says the American general. “The Russians they can’t do that either. They are vulnerable. Their resupply capacity is exhausted, they don’t even have parts, it’s very difficult.”
The comparison is not easy, nor self-explanatory. At that time the Wehrmacht and the Nazi regime had launched an aggressive war against the Soviet Union. But the sizes were also very different. In its advance to the Dnieper River alone, the Soviet army had lost over a million soldiers. In February, the total force that the Kremlin had lined up on the border with Ukraine did not exceed 150,000 soldiers. But what General Hodge ultimately argues is that, due to the geographical peculiarities of Ukraine as well, the Russian military has effectively exhaust its firepower.
More weapons from the West for Ukraine?
“The Russians have reached what Clausewitz he called ‘the climax’. It is the point beyond which one side she cannot continue her attack”, says Hodge. “Because it doesn’t have the resources or the people or the energy or whatever. What the Ukrainians are doing now, I believe, is creating the conditions for a counter-attack, which will take place when and how they decide. They will do everything they can to destroy the Russian artillery, missiles, and supply lines. Every time they hit a Russian munitions depot – and that happens about twice a week – the Russians are obliged to retreat a little more”
Like other military personnel in the West, the American general a.a. he believes that, in order for the Ukrainians to exploit the vulnerable points on the Russian side, they should be reinforced with more “smart” weapons of Western technology, such as ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) missiles with a range of 300 kilometers. This missile can also be launched from an American “High Mobility Artillery Missile System” (HIMARS), with which in recent weeks the Ukrainians have recorded significant successes on the battlefield. In Washington, since July, Democratic and Republican lawmakers have appeared to support the ATACMS missile mission in Kyiv. However, a few days ago, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov reported that the missiles have not yet arrived in Ukraine.
“Rather unlikely” a nuclear strike
Concerns about the further strengthening of the Ukrainian forces are mainly expressed by the White House Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, who believes that this decision may cause a new escalation, in fact he even speaks of a Third World War. General Ben Hodge takes a different view: “I think Mr. Sullivan is exaggerating when he says he doesn’t want to risk a Third World War,” says the former commander of US forces in Europe. “All Russia could do is use nuclear weapons. But I think this is extremely unlikely. There is nothing to be gained by using nuclear weapons, there is no target that could be hit by changing the balance of power, and of course, if that were to happen, it would be impossible for Great Britain and the US to remain apathetic. I also don’t think Putin is crazy. May he’s devilish, but he’s not crazy and has no suicidal tendencies. I also think that the 70 oligarchs who keep him in power would not want this to happen…”
DW – Frank Hoffman/ Giannis Papadimitriou
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