On the eve of elections held in Honduras, the government signed an agreement with Nicaragua on its sovereignty in the Gulf of Fonseca.
The agreement entails the cessation of repeated actions by the Nicaraguan Naval Force against Honduran fishermen – actions that, despite the decision, have been repeated over the years.
For Daniel Ortega, this is a way of tacitly ignoring the ruling of the International Court of Justice in The Hague, and for Juan Orlando Hernández (JOH), it is a way of clearing the way for the end of his term and the likely start of his process International.
A deal with personal goals
The agreement was received with absolute silence by the supporters of the outgoing president JOH and with numerous criticisms from the opposition and independent sectors. It would be unnecessary, as it makes no sense to ratify the 1992 decision of the court in The Hague.
But both governments have indicated that, in this way, Nicaragua explicitly recognizes that its maritime boundary in the Gulf of Fonseca is with Honduras and that, although they do not mention it, Salvadoran boundaries end in the latter.
The agreement was signed at a key moment for both representatives.
Ortega is coming from a highly questioned election internationally, and JOH is facing the end of his presidency and considering a possible legal refuge. He and several characters around him fear that the US justice system will request his extradition due to his alleged link with drug trafficking.
At the moment, everything indicates that the opposition will win the presidential elections in Honduras, which would further aggravate its situation within the country itself.
A feverish search
Therefore, the president would be looking for alternatives to take refuge, since the immunity that would give him his ascension as a deputy to Parlacen, which automatically corresponds to him as a former president, would not be a sufficient shield to escape from US justice.
In this quest to protect themselves, JOH and his closest collaborators have promoted, in recent years, the criticized Special Development and Employment Zones (Zede).
These Zedes, located in certain areas of Honduras, have a type of independent administrative division, subject to the national government and endowed with a high level of autonomy with its own political system, both at the judicial, economic and administrative level.
The Zedes could be a refuge for a first step.
Those that are already installed could not be dismantled without first resorting to international bodies, whose decisions, even if favorable to the Honduran State, would imply the payment of multimillion sums to the owners, in order to demolish them.
Despite the rejection of citizens by municipalities and civil society entities, three of the Zedes are moving forward.
Another possibility, presented by Honduran analysts, would be to seek refuge in Israel or Taiwan, but in both cases their link with the US would make this unfeasible.
That leaves JOH’s most trusted ally, former guerrilla Ortega, the first president to accept his triumph in 2013 and 2017.
Furthermore, the Nicaraguan has already demonstrated his “solidarity” with former partners in legal difficulties, such as former Salvadoran president Mauricio Funes, who not only found support but also a job at the Nicaraguan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in addition to his Nicaraguan nationality.
A new scam?
In any case, before moving to Managua, JOH would have recourse to a new fraud, just like in 2017.
However, on that occasion, he would no longer have the endorsement of Washington or the OAS (Organization of American States), whose secretary general strictly followed the “instructions” of the Department of State.
If eventually some National Party leaders dared to commit a new fraud, Ortega would be the first to accept the situation and endorse the “triumph”.
But it remains to be seen what position the nationalist presidential candidate, Nasry “Tito” Asfura, will assume.
He could refuse to be part of a fraud, not so much for moral or ethical reasons, but because he would assume the position under great pressure and without the support that JOH had after his own fraud.
Given the complexity of the different scenarios, Nicaragua is likely to be the best option for the future former president of Honduras.
According to statements by Honduran analyst Edgar Soriano to the newspaper El Libertador, “the Honduran head of state and the people around him are putting their personal interests first in order to look after their future, as his illegal term ends at the beginning of 2022”.
In this regard, the analyst added that “Nicaragua could be the destination of an exile for the current leader of the National Party.”
The “personal” exchange of favors between both representatives, due to doubts, does not stop.
Before the Nicaraguan elections, Honduras abstained at the OAS from voting a resolution calling for the immediate release of presidential candidates and political prisoners in Nicaragua.
Furthermore, in October, the Honduran government, despite the poor vaccination in its own country, donated to Nicaragua the vaccines that were delivered by the US and installed vaccination centers in points close to the common border, facilitating the vaccination of its neighbors.
All of this is pure speculation, and until JOH’s presidential term ends and investigations are effectively initiated, we will not know the true intentions of the current president.
But it is certain that everything indicates that he is already packing his bags.
translation of Maria Isabel Santos Lima
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