An American intelligence report confirmed the fear of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, as the Defense Minister of Kiev, Oleksii Reznikov, had already warned this Friday (3).
According to the document, first released by The Washington Post, Moscow has been drawing up plans for a military offensive involving some 175,000 troops. The report also points to the positioning of what authorities say could be 100 tactical groups, as well as heavy weapons, artillery and other equipment.
US officials point out that it is still not possible to know the intentions of Russian President Vladimir Putin. But while intelligence does not show that he has decided to carry out the apparent war plan, it describes Moscow’s military machine springing into action and positioning itself for an attack that experts say the Ukrainian military would have little chance against.
According to an official in Joe Biden’s government, who spoke on condition of anonymity to the New York Times, Russia is still moving to quickly build a large force of military reservists. In addition, the country’s 94,000 soldiers are gathered near the Ukrainian border, as reported by Reznikov.
The minister also pointed out that action was being prepared for the end of January. Citing intelligence reports, the minister told parliament that Ukraine would not provoke the situation but would be ready to fight back if Putin took the first step.
Later, the American president stated that the United States will take “comprehensive and significant” actions to hinder the Russian president’s actions. Biden told reporters that the US is preparing options to avoid a Russian military initiative.
“What I’m doing is bringing together what I believe is the most comprehensive and meaningful set of initiatives to make it very, very difficult for Putin to do what people are worried he’s going to do,” the Democrat said, adding that the US is in “constant contact” with Ukraine and European allies.
Russia, according to the Financial Times, denies plans to attack and classifies the warnings as inflammatory. While denying the goal of invading the neighboring country, the Kremilin says the chances of a new conflict in eastern Ukraine remain high given Kiev’s provocative actions.
Amidst the tension, Biden and Putin scheduled a videoconference meeting on Tuesday (7) to deal precisely with the Kiev issue.
Ukraine and the country’s partners in NATO, the Western military alliance, have been sounding the alarm for months about the movement of Russian troops near the border, with the possibility of the conflict escalating. The US said in November that Putin would be ready to invade the eastern European country whenever he wants.
Kiev has pleaded with the European Union (EU) and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to impose severe economic sanctions on Russia in an attempt to discourage an attack.
The European Council, which brings together the 27 member countries of the bloc, approved on Thursday (2) a package of 31 million euros (BRL 198 million) to help the government of the president of Ukraine, Volodimir Zelenski, to leverage the country security. The money, according to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, will be spent on medical supplies, cybersecurity and logistics.
During a meeting this Thursday with Russian Chancellor Serguei Lavrov in Stockholm, Sweden, Blinken warned Moscow of the “serious costs” Russia would have to deal with if it invaded Ukraine, urging the country to seek a diplomatic outlet for the conflict.
Lavrov, on the other hand, according to Russian diplomacy reports, has asked Washington for “long-term security guarantees” at its borders and, above all, for a commitment that NATO will not incorporate Ukraine into its membership — Ukrainians want to be part of the club military, which is unacceptable for Russia.
Kiev claims that Russia does not have the right to block the Ukrainian government’s closer ties with NATO and that Moscow’s moves in that direction would have no legitimacy. “Any proposals by Russia to discuss guarantees that the alliance would not expand into Eastern Europe are illegitimate,” said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba.
The relationship between Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, and Russia fell apart in 2014, when Putin, reacting to the coup that toppled the pro-Moscow government in Kiev, annexed the Crimea region and started a civil war which made eastern Ukraine a territory dominated by separatists. An estimated 14,000 people have died in the fighting since then.
This year, Putin carried out military rallies and exercises on the border, scaring the West, to dissuade the Ukrainian government from taking action to retake rebel areas.
Ukraine, meanwhile, received a large shipment of US ammunition and Javelin missiles earlier this year, prompting criticism from Moscow and heightening tension in the region. Although there are currently no announced military exercises, specialists see the deployment of armored divisions as a threat of invasion for the coldest months of the year, when the terrain is frozen and is more easily crossed.
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