Lula secured 42.3% against Bolsonaro’s 34.1% in the first round of the presidential election.
THE center-left candidate Luis Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a clear lead over its far-right current president Brazil Zach Bolsonarowho has narrowed the gap in an MDA poll released today, confirming predictions of a lopsided election in October.
In particular, Lula secures 42.3% against Bolsonaro’s 34.1% in the first round of the presidential elections. In the previous MDA poll in May, Lula had 40.6% to Bolsonaro’s 32%.
Lula is projected to beat Bolsonaro in the second round, securing 50.1% to his opponent’s 38.8%. The lead of 11.3 percentage points is narrower than Lula’s lead in May (14%) and December (18%).
“The gap between the two main candidates, Lula and Bolsonaro, is still narrowing,” commented MDA director Marcelo Souza, who points out that the negative vote for Bolsonaro is 10% higher than that for his centre-left rival, which could be a decisive factor in Lula’s favor in the second round of the presidential election.
The “x-ray” of Lula da Silva’s voters shows members of the working class, Roman Catholics and residents of the deprived areas of northeastern Brazil.
On the contrary, Bolsounarou draws his strength from the wealthiest strata of society, members of the Evangelical Church, residents of the southern and central western states, as well as the Amazon.
Poll respondents’ main concerns were high food and fuel prices, which Bolsonaro has sought to tackle, and unemployment, which Lula promises to reduce by creating new jobs in industry.
The MDA poll on behalf of the Confederation of Transport Workers (CNT) involved 2,002 voters. The survey was conducted between August 25 and 28 and the margin of statistical error is ±2.2%.
RES-EMP
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