In the foreground once again is the risk of disintegration of a country with rich oil deposits that are eyed by big and smaller powers.
Headless in essence Libya it has become a game of warring rulers. Is the country falling apart? Her role of Russia disruptive and the EU indicates present only.
Last weekend’s fierce clashes with 32 dead in the heart of the Libyan capital between two prime ministers, the Abdel Hamid Dbeiba based in Tripoli and Fati Basaga, based in the city of Tobruk, again brings to the fore the danger of the breakup of a country with rich oil fields that is eyed by big and smaller powers. The two politicians have lost their legitimacy. Dbeiba, because as head of a transitional government, failed to organize parliamentary elections last December, nevertheless remained in his post. And Basanga, because he is elected head of a transitional government by the parliament in Tobruk, but was elected in an election in 2014.
Interests and Fragile Alliances
Wolfram Lacher, an expert on Libya from the Foundation for Science and Politics, assesses the situation as part of a “never-ending story”. Important is what highlights and makes the situation more difficult: fragile alliances. Today’s allies rally, fight together and tomorrow they are facing each other. There is no shortage of international actors who maintain armed forces, cooperate with different hegemons and want to do business. Russia, USA, France, Italy, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, the list goes on. Thomas Falk, head of the Tunis-based regional program “Political Dialogue in the Mediterranean”, fears that such clashes could turn fatal.
And what is the EU doing? “The role of the EU in Libya is rather disappointing, we can’t put it any other way. It is largely based on a soft power approach, at least in terms of development cooperation in many areas. But in terms of hard power then unfortunately the EU does not make its presence felt anywhere in North Africa”.
The disruptive role of Russia
Within this backdrop of political instability, division and armed conflict it is impossible to favor constructive dialogue, compromises and functional structures. And if the conflicts and violence continue, then it is only a matter of time before the country breaks up. For the EU it would mean disorderly migration flows with all that entails.
“Of course Russia is trying to break up Europe,” argues Thomas Falk. “Russia is trying to divide the entire international community and therefore should have an interest in these violent conflicts. Basically, Russia is trying to destabilize and cause unrest in its immediate neighborhood of Europe, to destabilize it and cause unrest, so that the Europeans have new foci in Europe’s southern neighborhood to deal with. At the same time, however, one can see that Russia is now playing a decisive and supportive role in Mali, precisely through the Wagner group. From there they try to act against Europe and gain influence in the entire Sahel region. And of course Libya plays a decisive role in this.”
DW / Kersten Knipp, Emad Hassan / Editor: Irini Anastasopoulou
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