The attempt to assassinate Cristina Kirchner has already become an unavoidable theme for the presidential succession, which takes place next year in Argentina. If, among government politicians, the idea of joining forces around the deputy, who has aspirations to return to office, is reinforced, on the part of the opponents there is an effort to moderate the attacks.
The strategy is to avoid entering into the confrontation suggested by President Alberto Fernández in a nationally broadcast speech, a few hours after the episode, in which he pointed out enemies who, in his view, were behind the crime: the press, justice and the opposition.
“Justice must deliver quick results, if it doesn’t want to see the climate of polarization increase and, with that, prevent the judgment from being made by the population, based on their particular reading of the case, as happened on other occasions”, he tells the Sheet Sergio Berensztein, consultant and political analyst.
He refers, for example, to the case of prosecutor Alberto Nisman, who was still mysteriously killed in 2015, while preparing an indictment against Cristina Kirchner. Even today, it is common for many Argentines to be divided between those who believe he was murdered and those who believe in suicide, which was the cause pointed out by a formal investigation, contested by lack of evidence.
This Saturday (3), the consultancy Reputación Digital, which does research based on reactions on social networks, pointed out that 62.44% of Argentines do not believe that the incident was in fact an attack, but a “setup”. , according to an online poll with more than 250 thousand people.
“Our judicial system is discredited, and it needs to act seriously in this case, otherwise it will be one of those open sagas, in which everyone uses what they think, according to their ideology, about what really happened”, says Berensztein.
The opposition to Kirchnerism, represented by alliances such as Juntos por El Cambio, by former president Mauricio Macri (2015-2019), by the libertarians of Javier Milei and the most left-wing parties of Peronism, such as the Frente de Izquierda, must move towards moderation in its criticism of the government, at least for the time being, out of respect for institutionality.
For Berensztein, the situation is similar to that of Brazil after the Bolsonaro attack. “Opponents couldn’t attack him when he was in the hospital, and that contributed to his victory.” Also for Marcos Novaro, a political scientist at the University of Buenos Aires, “the opposition will be wrong if it continues the escalation of confrontation, if it falls into the government’s provocation expressed by the president on national television”.
The opposition, however, is not a single bloc. Within Juntos por El Cambio there are at least three pre-candidates. PRO president Patricia Bullrich had been adopting a direct confrontation with Cristina.
When the deputy hinted that she “drank”, Bullrich replied, “I can stop drinking, but you can’t stop stealing.” “Pato” Bullrich, as he is known, rivals Horácio Rodríguez Larreta, head of government in Buenos Aires and also a presidential candidate for the same opposition coalition, for attention.
She would be uncomfortable with Larreta’s role in the confrontation with Cristina due to the confusion that arose on the previous Saturday afternoon (27), when the police in the capital tried to put up barriers to prevent the arrival of militants in front of Cristina’s residence.
“Patricia was very nervous about the possibility that Larreta would capitalize on the episode in her favor, profiling herself as Cristina’s true antagonist,” says Novaro.
Regarding Milei, who did not even sympathize with the attack, Novaro believes he is not an important player and “does not seem to have the breath to reach a viable candidacy”. For him, who did better was Mauricio Macri, who “has been maintaining moderation”. For Novaro, there are two clear agendas on the table: “Cristina’s and Justice’s, which will now be Cristina’s against her aggressors, and the opposition’s agenda, which must be the country’s problems.”
From the government’s point of view, Berensztein sees a dilemma: “There is a possibility that kirchnerism might scale what happened and treat it with the seriousness it deserves, or exaggerate Cristina’s victimization using hate speech, which would be a mistake.”
He is concerned about the post by Interior Minister Wado de Pedro, one of Cristina’s closest associates, who stated that the attack “was not perpetrated by a madman on the loose, nor is it an isolated event.” “There are three tons of editorials in newspapers, television and radio with violent speeches. They are the ones who sow hatred and revenge, and the result was the attempt to kill Cristina.”
“These are very irresponsible words, which should not be used by someone who holds the position they have, and even more so without having all the elements of the investigation”, says Berensztein.
This strategy, for Novaro, will not advance much, because “those who took to the streets on Friday in solidarity are their supporters, and there were no new votes.” Berensztein agrees: “They were the usual ones. If Cristina radicalizes the speech even more, they will only be in these numbers”.
On the other hand, Novaro believes it is very difficult for Cristina not to be a candidate next year. “She has more political capital now than she did in the last election, and she knew it was a mistake to leave Alberto Fernández as leader of the presidential ticket. If the scenario doesn’t change much by then, it will be very tempting for her to run. “
She also considers that a victory by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in Brazil will be another factor to cheer her up. “We will surely see support visits, gestures between [Gabriel] Boric [presidente do Chile], [Gustavo] Petro, president of Colombia, and Lula around Cristina’s candidacy. The question is how much breath will these left-wing presidents have in their countries in a very serious economic scenario.”
