Turkey: “Holy alliance” of the opposition against Erdogan – Who will face him in the elections

In recent years, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has often made headlines in Germany. Mainly because of his controversial foreign policy rhetoric. He ruled Turkey for almost 20 years as prime minister and since 2018 as president. He turned Turkey’s parliamentary system into a presidential and real center of power.

However, Erdogan does not seem likely to win the upcoming elections on June 18, 2023. Although the country’s image, which has been badly damaged in recent years, has somewhat improved internationally thanks to Ankara’s successful role as a mediator in war in Ukraine. However, according to a recent survey by the Turkish polling institute Yenilem, 58.7% of Turkish voters “definitely would not vote for Erdogan” and only 30% “would definitely vote for him”.

Opposition: one for all, all for one

After many years of effort, the opposition has finally managed to unite and consists of six political parties. The collaboration would have been unthinkable a few years ago.

The so-called Table of Six includes the largest social-democratic-Kemali opposition party, the Republican People’s Party, the nationalist “Good Party”, the Islamist Welfare Party, the traditional Democratic Party and two other parties founded by two former fellow travelers of Erdogan. Gelecek Party founded by former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and DEVA Party founded by former Finance and Foreign Minister Ali Babacan.

The main goal of the Six is ​​to win the elections and return to the parliamentary system. In the aforementioned poll, 65% of respondents supported a parliamentary system, while 29% wanted the presidential system to remain. It is also notable that around 63% believe that Turkey is “badly governed”. However, one of the largest opposition parties, the Kurdish Democratic Party, is absent.

Who will face Erdogan next year?

The names on the table as possible contenders for power are first of all Kemal Kilicdaroglu. He has been the chairman of the Republican People’s Party since 2010. He made headlines when he appeared on television with a stack of documents to prove corruption. He gives the impression that he would like to take on the responsibility of leadership, however, there are many who believe that he is not the right candidate.

Ekrem Imamoglu is another name that is heard a lot. The mayor of Istanbul represents for many Turkey’s democracy, which continues to function despite obstacles. He won the Istanbul elections twice in 2019. The AKP contested the municipal elections which Imamoglu initially narrowly won but later won again by a larger margin. So a serious counter-argument to his candidacy for the presidency is that if he succeeds, he will resign from his position in Istanbul.

Finally, the name of the nationalist Mansour Yavas is heard. He was elected mayor in the 2019 municipal elections in Ankara. He was a member of the nationalist MHP party which now co-rules with Erdogan’s AKP. His nationalist orientation does not make him an ideal candidate for the Kurdish voters, however, it is not excluded that they will vote for him strategically since their vote carries a lot of weight in the elections in Turkey.

However, regardless of who the candidate of the Turkish opposition will be in the end, he seems to have a great chance against Erdogan.

DW – Burak Unveren/ Maria Rigoutsou

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