Erdogan adopts dual diplomacy to deal with Turkey’s own crises

In “The Godfather,” Al Pacino mobster Michael Corleone says he learned from his father to keep his friends close, but his enemies even closer. The maxim recalls the current strategy of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who in recent months has shaken hands with allied leaders and approached countries seen as adversaries.

This Thursday (15) he arrived in Uzbekistan, where the Chinese Xi Jinping passed and where the Turk will meet with local authorities and with Russian Vladimir Putin at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization – a group that seeks to defend security. from Asian and Central Asian countries. Turkey is not a member of the collegiate, but Erdogan insists on projecting himself as a moderator in a period of crisis between West and East.

It is the third time he has met face-to-face with Putin in less than two months. At the last one, in Sochi, the two talked about expanding cooperation in the areas of trade and energy – while the rest of NATO, of which Ankara is a part, tries to cut economic ties with the Russians. Two weeks later, the Turk went to Lviv, in western Ukraine, where he said he was on the side of Volodymyr Zelensky.

Although it has strengthened connections with Moscow, Turkey is still the Kremlin’s main adversary in the dispute for influence in the Caucasus and the Black Sea, and Erdogan and Putin are on opposite sides of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia – which has escalated again this week.

“NATO countries are debating what to offer the Turks so that they remain together with the West, but that is not yet defined,” says Dorothée Schmid, chief analyst for Turkey at the French Institute of International Relations.

Erdogan, in any case, has already presented a demand, linked to the acceptance for the admission of Finland and Sweden to the alliance: that Europe help Ankara arrest militants of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which he considers terrorists and are exiled in Nordic countries.

The external duality, analysts point out, is rooted in internal fragility. The Turkish lira registers a historic devaluation in 2022, and inflation exceeds 80% a year – direct consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic and the War in Ukraine.

In addition, Erdogan is expected to face the strongest opposition in next year’s elections since he took power in 2003. “The economic crisis has caused him to lose part of his electorate, especially the poor and the lower middle class”, says Schmid.

This would be the main justification for the mediation that Ankara sought to play in the negotiations between Moscow and Kiev to unblock grain exports – Turkey, perhaps not by chance, has been the destination of 36% of the ships that departed Ukraine since the agreements with the UN.

Opposition to Erdogan also uses anti-immigration rhetoric. The country is home to 3.6 million Syrian refugees who, in the view of part of the population, compete for jobs. In recent weeks, the Turkish president has shown signs that he intends to return to negotiations with the dictatorship of Bashar Al-Assad – his former rival. An eventual pact could involve the deportation of refugees, assuaging criticism in this area.

The economic crisis also contributed to the diplomatic resumption that Ankara embarked on with other Middle Eastern nations, mainly the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

“Turkey needs money, and its leaders know that, today, growth prospects are bleak, because they depend mainly on investments from the European Union, which is also in difficulty. That’s why Ankara returned to talks with the Gulf nations,” he said. says Schmid.

Adding to Erdogan’s change of stance is the recent agreement with Israel, a country with which Turkey has not had relations since 2018 – when 60 Palestinians died in protests against the move of the US embassy to Jerusalem, the idea of ​​Donald Trump. “The Palestinian issue has lost relevance. The most important thing now is regional stability”, says Christoph Ramm, a researcher at the University of Bern.

But the Turkish leader maintained the duality: days after the announcement with Tel Aviv, he received Mahmoud Abbas in Ankara and assured that the resumption of ties with the Israelis will not weaken relations with the Palestinian Authority.

The siege of alliances also helps to demonstrate authority within the country. “Turkey is going through its strongest period politically, militarily and diplomatically,” he told thousands of supporters last month. It remains to be seen, now, if the Turk will be able to sustain a moderating dialogue with his adversaries or if, like Corleone, he will end up alone after sacrificing, albeit indirectly, his allies.