How the Ukrainian counterattack brought about the Kremlin’s nuclear threat

Seven months after the stifling Russian attack, Vladimir Putin proceeded to military escalation in the conflict in Ukraine by enlisting hundreds of thousands of men and threatening to use nuclear weapons. How is this escalation explained?

Why now;

Ever since Russia launched its attack on Ukraine on February 24, the Kremlin has not stopped announcing that “everything is going according to plan.” Even when he was forced to abandon the offensive against Kiev and retreat eastward in the spring.

In early September, things changed. Ukrainian forces, equipped by the West, forced Russian forces to withdraw from the Kharkiv region in northeastern Ukraine and retreat into Donbass (east) and Kherson (south)

At the same time, the major countries that Putin hoped would rally behind the Kremlin’s offensive against the West are beginning to show that they are losing patience.

Last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Putin that “this is not the time for war,” while the Russian president was forced to publicly admit that he “listens to the concerns of China” and President Xi Jinping.

“He got the message from the non-Western countries that he should end as soon as possible, stop speaking on behalf of the non-Western world,” said Alexandre Baounov, a former analyst at the Carnegie Center in Moscow, which recently shut down the Russian government. .

Attachment and atomic bomb

At this juncture, Moscow sought to regain the initiative by hastily announcing yesterday the organization from September 23 to 27 of annexation referendums in four regions of Ukraine, which are at least partially under Russian occupation.

Since Russian military doctrine provides for the use of nuclear weapons if Russian territory is attacked, the territories to be annexed will be Russian territory in the eyes of the Kremlin, even if no one in the world has recognized such borders.

Well, the point for Russia is to stop the Ukrainian counter-attack and the sending of weapons through the “referendums” of what the West calls a “sham” and a “fraud”.

Already yesterday, the head of the Russian network RT Margarita Simonyan wrote on Twitter that this week will be “either the anteroom of our imminent victory or nuclear war.”

Conscription of whom and why?

The partial conscription announced by Putin involves 300,000 reservists, mostly people with some military experience.

Few details have been leaked other than that these reservists will be properly trained and equipped. No timetable has been announced, at a time when Russia’s most experienced military forces are on the front lines, suffering heavy casualties.

Russian authorities have promised that students and draftees are exempt from conscription for the war front.

According to the chairman of the defense committee of the Russian Parliament, Andrei Kartapolov, the conscription mainly concerns reservists and non-commissioned officers under the age of 35, as well as reserve officers under the age of 45.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu explained that this mobilization was necessary to hold the Russian-held territories of Ukraine.

The front line “is long, more than 1000 kilometers. Obviously, we have to strengthen that line and at the back, we have to control those territories.”

Putin’s bet?

Since yesterday, after the announcement of the annexation referendums, the Kremlin seems to be seeking to play the escalation card to achieve Ukraine’s retreat, putting the nuclear option on the table.

“This is Russia’s ultimatum to Ukraine and the West: either Ukraine backs down or nuclear war,” commented independent analyst Tatiana Stanovaïa on Telegram today.

But today Putin insisted that “it is not a bluff”.

For seven months now, the West has been actively expressing its support for Ukraine, increasing military and economic aid. London, for its part, announced that the Kremlin’s announcements are an admission of failure.

At the military level, conscription risks proving insufficient to change the situation on the ground. At least immediately.

The organizational challenge of training, equipping and deploying 300,000 men at the front is colossal, given that Russia has not demonstrated much effectiveness in the field and has already taken heavy losses having deployed its best military units with its best equipment.

“Since the start of the military operation, almost nothing has been going as planned,” summarized Tatiana Stanovaïa of the R.Politik center.

RES-EMP

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