Will Meloni lead Italy to a stalemate? Ukrainian, abortion, immigration in focus

Her electoral victory Georgia Meloni not really a surprise. For the far-right politician, the early elections after the resignation of Mario Draghi was a golden opportunity, which she did not let go unexploited. With simple populist slogans like “Italians first” he convinced many voters, who were tired of the left and liberal parties. Political scientist Lorenzo De Sio from Rome’s LUISS University observes, speaking to DW, that Italians are “politically tired” after repeated crises and three governing coalitions with constant composition changes since the last election. This is also shown by the fact that voter turnout at the polls fell to a historic low of 65% on Sunday. That is, it was 10% lower than four years ago.

Unlike the rest of Europe, in Italy the political past of Giorgia Meloni and her party “Brothers of Italy” played little role in the Italian election campaign, and even after her election victory. “For most Italians, Giorgia Meloni is a conservative politician with a post-fascist past,” says Lutz Klinkhammer, an expert on modern Italian history at the German Historical Institute in Rome.

No right-wing revolution is expected in Italy

Voters DW spoke to after the election do not now expect a far-right revolution in Italy, but rather small, perhaps painful, changes in the areas of family policy, gay rights and abortion. A lot is expected to change in immigration as well, as flows continue mainly from countries in northern Africa to Italy.

According to opinion polls, Italians expect the new right-wing government to curb high inflation, energy costs and taxes. The parties of the right-wing alliance (“Brothers of Italy”, “Forza Italia” and “Lega”) did not present concrete plans, neither before nor after the elections. All we know is that Georgia Meloni is rejecting an increase in new lending in the face of a looming recession. Let’s not forget that the public debt of the third largest economy in the EU now reaches 150% of GDP and interest rates on ten-year bonds are at 4.3%.

Governance for Meloni will not be a cakewalk

Italian analysts do not expect, at least for the first time, any change of course by the new government on the most critical issue of foreign policy: the Ukrainian one. Georgia Meloni has clearly condemned Russia’s war against Ukraine and supports sanctions against Russia, as well as aid to Ukraine. In contrast, “Lega” and “Forza Italia” do not have a clear position. In the past Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi maintained close ties with Vladimir Putin, but they distanced themselves, more or less, after the start of the war.

From all indications, Georgia Mellon will not have much time to implement her right-wing populist program in the spirit of her idol, Donald Trump. The average government term in Italy’s highly volatile political system is 15 to 18 months. Disillusioned voters have no problem with radical changes if they don’t like the policies of even a newly elected government.

We remind you that four years ago, the left-wing populist “Five Star” Movement won the election with a higher percentage than Georgia Meloni did last Sunday. Today the “Five Stars” seem to have lost their bearings, with their percentage in the elections reduced by half. A similar path was followed by the head of “Lega” Matteo Salvini, who lost about half of his voters compared to 2018. There is no doubt that both Italy and its relationship with the EU are awaiting politically interesting, but perhaps also difficult, times.

DW – Bird Riegert/ Stefanos Georgakopoulos

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