The government of Vladimir Putin completes on Tuesday (27) the referendums for the annexation of four regions that Russia partially occupies in Ukraine, invaded in February by Moscow. The formalization of the absorption may take place this week.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin grapples with an escalating domestic crisis stemming from Putin’s decision to mobilize as many as 300,000 reservists to turn back the negative tide in the Ukraine War, which saw Kiev regain ground in a surprise counteroffensive this month.
In a growing movement, the anger that was initially contained to sections of the middle class who can afford international airfare is turning into a humanitarian crisis. This Tuesday (27), the Moscow-allied government in Kazakhstan said that 98,000 Russians had already crossed the border since the mobilization, decreed on the 21st.
The country does not require a visa from Russians, making transit easier. The same is true in Georgia, which, according to the Interior Ministry, now receives 10,000 Russians a day – from 5,000 to 6,000 at the beginning of the crisis, but the government, which is more pro-Western, did not specify how many there were before.
Satellite images from the American company Maxar show lines of cars on the winding mountain pass that connects Russia to the Russian separatist enclave of South Ossetia, which was separated in a war with Georgia in 2008. There are also lines at the Mongolian border.
The crux of the matter is the terms of mobilization, with rules varying from place to place. Thus, reservists who were soldiers over the age of 35 stipulated by the government as a limit are being called up, as well as people with health problems.
The problem is more serious in the most remote and poor regions of the country, such as Buryatia (Siberia) or Kalmykia (south of the country), according to reports by activists on social networks. In more developed urban centers, such as Khabarovsk (Siberia), Moscow and St. Petersburg, the middle class leads the discontent – there have been around 2,400 arrests of protesters since the announcement.
The Kremlin issued a receipt and on Monday (26) said it was working to correct errors by local authorities. Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov said the idea of ​​closing borders was not being considered, but did not rule it out entirely.
This Tuesday, the Ministry of Defense said it will not seek the forced return of those who fled to neighbors, seeking to calm tempers.
The reinforcement of troops aims to solve the main problem of the Russian campaign, the lack of personnel. This dehydration was the central cause of the failure to take Kiev at the beginning of the war and for the defeat in the Kharkiv region now.
The price Putin, still with an 83% approval rating according to the independent Centro Levada, will pay in popularity is uncertain at this point. But his decision brought the war, then the subject of rosy reports in state media, into Russian daily life.
The acceleration of the annexation of the two self-proclaimed republics of Donbass (east) and the southern regions is another part of Putin’s action, which may in the end give the Russian a base to try to end the conflict in a position of strength. Not by chance, his deputy at the country’s Security Council, Dmitri Medvedev, said that the areas will be protected even by nuclear weapons.
Speaking to government ministers on Tuesday, Putin said that “saving the people in the territories where the referendums are held is the focus of attention of our entire country.” The widespread footage of Russian soldiers escorting people from door to door with urns does not seem to match the account, but by now the Kremlin is treating the matter as a fait accompli.
That was the case in 2014, when it annexed Crimea, but at that time there was indeed popular will — something that can be seen in areas of the Donbass, which have already been under separatist control since that year, but hardly applies to regions forcibly conquered this year.
Furthermore, in Crimea there was no open conflict. Now, Ukraine is at war, and its foreign minister, Dmitro Kuleba, said on Tuesday that the country’s military actions will not stop because the Kremlin has decided to annex 15% of Ukrainian territory – apart from the 7% it already has in Crimea, by the way. a historical Russian region.
The annexation could take place on Friday (30), as there is an expectation of a speech by Putin to both Houses of Parliament. In 2014, the absorption of Crimea took place a mere two days after the local vote.
There are still no results released, but the Russian press says that the referendums are legal as more than 50% turnout would have been reached — at the same time that it released photos of hospitalized elderly people voting from hospital beds.
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