Ukraine says chance of Russian nuclear attack too high

The Ukrainian government considers the likelihood of Russia attacking its country with nuclear weapons very high. The assessment, bleak and supplemented by the usual call for more Western military aid against Vladimir Putin’s invasion, was made by the Defense Ministry’s Chief Intelligence Directorate.

“The attacks are likely to hit locations along the front line where there are large numbers of personnel and equipment, as well as command centers and critical infrastructure. To stop them, we need not only anti-aircraft systems, but anti-missiles as well,” the statement said. body’s spokesperson, Vadim Skibistki.

The issue of the use of nuclear weapons has become naturalized among analysts and observers of the conflict because of the growing rhetoric from Moscow, which since the beginning of the conflict has presented its credentials as a superpower in the sector to limit Western involvement.

Last week, when announcing the mobilization of 300,000 reservists and the process of annexing four Ukrainian regions, Putin evoked Russian nuclear doctrine, which provides for the use of the bomb in the event of an existential threat to the state – even if conventional.

The logic is simple: he meant that he can use this type of weapon in the event of an attack on his territory. As from this Friday (30) he considers the 15% that he intends to annex from Ukraine part of Russia, the scenario is set.

Experts argue that Putin may be tempted to launch a warning strike if Ukraine continues to try to retake occupied areas. To do this, he could use a low-power tactical bomb designed to minimize the scattering of radioactivity after the explosion, perhaps in an isolated spot like Cobra Island.

The small piece of land, in the west of the Black Sea, became a symbol of Ukrainian resistance as it was retaken from Russia with the use of Western missiles that Kiev did not have before the war and the support of an American drone. More objective action would follow the line Skibitski cited, but the idea of ​​attacking command centers implies hitting civilian areas.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Putin’s ally and his No. 2 on the country’s Security Council, elaborated on the possibility of using the bomb and challenged the West, saying that NATO (Western military alliance) would not directly retaliate because doesn’t want to “die in the nuclear apocalypse”.

This is a grim reference to an escalation that many analysts fear could ensue if Putin uses a limited bomb. Poland has already advocated for NATO to engage in conventional war against the Russians, but that could easily devolve into a nuclear conflict with strategic weapons, those designed to destroy entire cities and, in the end, bring about the apocalypse cited by Medvedev.

The US has yet to deliver the anti-aircraft systems promised to the Ukrainians in one of several packages that already add up to more than $16 billion in military aid to Kiev. But anti-missile systems were not promised, not least because they would imply an escalation: the system can be used, with adaptations, as an offensive weapon as well.