London, Thanasis Gavos
The warning that the United Kingdom could face a peak in the number of coronavirus cases “much higher” than in January 2021 due to the Omicron variant, was addressed by scientific advisers of the British government.
According to documents from the Scientific Committee on Influenza Pandemic Scientific Committee (SPI-MO), which sits on the SAGE Advisory Committee, if South African assessments of Omicron’s ability to evade vaccine defense are transferred to the UK without adjustment , then this huge wave of infections could also cause as many as a thousand day hospitalizations of carriers of the variant by the end of the year.
Scientists note, however, that “South Africa is not the United Kingdom, both in epidemiological and social terms.”
It is nevertheless intended that if Omicron is accompanied by even half the severity of the disease caused by Delta, then the large number of infections would put more pressure on health structures.
It is also noted that if Omicron’s apparent ability to resist vaccines reduces their effectiveness from 96% to 92%, this would double the number of vaccinated individuals who are no longer protected against the risk of hospitalization.
The paper concludes that if Omicron combines increased transmissibility with the ability to escape vaccine defense, no matter how severe the symptoms, then it is “extremely likely” that “very strict measures” will be needed to curb the spread of the variant.
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