The Kremlin does not seek conflict with the West, but is prepared for it – Everything points to a protracted bloody conflict
His actions and thoughts Vladimir Putin for the next day, BBC Russia expert Steve Rosenberg analyzes in his article.
More specifically he writes:
It’s the question we’ve been asking for months, even before Russia invaded Ukraine. What is Vladimir Putin thinking and planning?
I don’t have a Kremlin crystal ball. I don’t have Putin on direct call either. Former US President George W. Bush once said he looked Vladimir Putin in the eye and “had a sense of his soul.” Look how well this ended for relations between Russia and the West.
So getting inside the mind of the Kremlin leader is a pretty thankless task. But it’s important to try. Perhaps more than ever now, in light of recent nuclear threats from Moscow.
There is no doubt that the Russian president is under pressure. His so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine has gone badly for him.
It was supposed to last a few days. But we’re almost eight months in and there’s no end in sight.
Moscow admits significant losses in Ukraine
The Kremlin admits “significant” troop losses. In recent weeks, the Russian military has lost territory in Ukraine that it had previously seized.
To boost troop numbers, President Putin last month announced a partial mobilization, something he had earlier insisted he would not do. Meanwhile, sanctions continue to drag down the Russian economy.
Could the Russian president believe that he got it all wrong, that his decision to invade Ukraine was a fundamental mistake?
No. “Putin’s perceptions are leading the whole situation to this conflict,” believes Konstantin Remchukov, owner and editor-in-chief of the Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
“He is the authoritarian leader of a nuclear power. He is the undisputed leader in this country. He has some strong beliefs and perceptions that drive him crazy. He came to believe that this is existential in terms of meaning. Not only for but for the future of Russia.”
If this conflict is an existential one, how far is President Putin willing to go to win it?
In recent months, high-ranking Russian officials (including Putin himself) have dropped hints that Russia could use nuclear weapons in this conflict. “I don’t think he will,” US President Joe Biden told CNN.
Russia’s intense shelling of Ukraine this week shows that the Kremlin is, at the very least, determined to escalate things with Kyiv.
He does not want direct conflict with the West, but he is ready for it
And with the West?
“He is trying to avoid direct confrontation with the West, but at the same time he is prepared for it,” believes veteran liberal politician Grigory Yavlinsky. “I’m more afraid of the possibility of a nuclear conflict. And, secondly, I am afraid of endless war.”
But “endless war” requires endless resources. This is something that Russia does not seem to have. The spate of bombings in Ukrainian cities is a show of force, but how long can Moscow keep it up?
“Could you keep this rocket stream going for days, weeks, months? Many experts doubt that we have enough missiles,” says Mr. Remchukov.
“Also, from a military point of view, no one ever said what the sign of the end would be [ρωσικής] victory? What is the symbol of victory? In 1945 it was the banner over Berlin. What are the success criteria now? [Ένα πανό] over Kyiv? Above Kherson? Above Kharkiv? I do not know. Nobody knows”.
It is not even clear that Vladimir Putin knows. In February, the Kremlin’s goal appeared to be a quick defeat of Ukraine in order to force it back into Moscow’s orbit without a protracted war. He miscalculated. He underestimated the determination of the Ukrainian army and people to defend their land and seemingly overestimated the capabilities of his own army.
What is he thinking now? Is Vladimir Putin’s current plan to consolidate control over the Ukrainian territory he claims to have annexed and then freeze the conflict? Or is he determined to continue until all of Ukraine is back in the Kremlin’s sphere of influence?
Prolonged bloody conflict
This week, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev wrote: “The Ukrainian state in its current configuration… will be a constant, direct and clear threat to Russia. I believe that the goal of our future actions should be the complete dissolution of the political regime of Ukraine.”
If Mr. Medvedev’s words reflect President Putin’s thinking, expect a protracted and bloody conflict.
But, inevitably, Mr. Putin’s actions abroad have consequences at home. Over the years the Kremlin has painstakingly cultivated Putin’s image as “master stability,” encouraging the Russian public to believe that as long as he was in charge they would be safe.
“The previous contract between Putin and society was ‘I protect you,'” says Mr. Remchukov. “For many years the main slogan was ‘predictability’. What kind of predictability is there today? The idea is over. Nothing is predictable. My reporters don’t know if they’re going to get call papers when they go home today.”
Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine surprised many. But not Mr. Yavlinski. “I think that [ο Πούτιν] it was moving in that direction – year after year it paved the way to what we have now,” he says.
“For example, by destroying the independent media. He started it in 2001. Destroying independent businesses. He started it in 2003. After 2014 and what happened with Crimea and Donbass. You’d have to be blind not to see that.
“Russia’s problem is our system. Here was a system created that created such a person [όπως ο Πούτιν]. The question of the role of the West in the creation of this system is very serious.
“The problem is that this system did not create a society. There are many very good people in Russia. But there is no civil society. That is why Russia cannot resist.”
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I am currently a news writer for News Bulletin247 where I mostly cover sports news. I have always been interested in writing and it is something I am very passionate about. In my spare time, I enjoy reading and spending time with my family and friends.
