Germany: The impasse of the Liberals threatens the governing coalition

“Better not to govern at all, if you are going to govern in the wrong way.” With this remark, on November 19, 2017, Mr Christian Lindner almost theatrically broke up negotiations on the formation of a “Jamaica” government with the Christian Union (CDU/CSU) and the Greens. The leader of the Liberals (FDP) declared at the time that he did not see a basis of confidence for co-government. Yellows and Greens hung up the suits and taggers again in the wardrobes and the country continued as before, with a “grand” coalition, CDU/CSU and Social Democratic Party (SPD). Tfour years later things were even more difficult. The “natural” partner had lost the election and the chancellor would be a social democrat. And yet the FDP, albeit with a heavy heart, took up its responsibilities and entered government with the SPD and the Greens – to prevent the country from turning to the left, as it advertised. Today, the FDP is cursed at the time it entered the federal government and since then it has been gradually … coming out of all the state governments. Last Sunday’s defeat in Lower Saxony formalized the stalemate.

In September 2021 the situation was certainly very different than it is today. Germany had begun to reheat its growth engines after nearly two years of pandemic and sluggishness. The outlook was triumphant and everyone was waiting for the new era: the digital transition, renewable energy sources, the new welfare state. The FDP, cunningly thinking, claimed the finance ministry. That is, the ministry, from where the policies of all the others are approved – or rejected. What better way for the traditional party of the economy and the center to put a “brake” on the left-wing “recklessness” of its partners. And if one day he had to do them a favor, the German economy could afford it.

Almost a year after the formation of a ‘traffic light’ coalition governmentthe situation could not be more different than all predictions. Germany enters 2023 in recession, the steam engine of the European economy is gasping, aid packages have reached three in number and 300 billion euros and no one is able to calculate how much more will be spent on the energy market. Poverty brings grumbling, they say, and so much grumbling was experienced by the German government for years. The cohabitation was supposed to be difficult anyway and is proving to be even more difficult.

“We can’t go on like this, with the two partners constantly coming up with ideas for expenses and the third one looking for how to finance them,” said FDP Secretary General Bijan Jir-Sarai and called for immediate changes in government policy. “People now think we’re a left-wing party too,” protested leader Christian Lindner. But in Lower Saxony, where the FDP was left out of the local parliament, the enemy was not on the left of the party. The biggest drain of FDP voters was to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which almost doubled its strength to 11%. In fact, according to the head of the Infratest dimap Institute, Manfred Gulner, and at the federal level, there lies the problem of the Liberals.

Despite the internal party voices, the party’s leadership rejects for the moment the possibility of leaving the governing coalition, which would mean the dissolution of the government in a period of deep crisis. In any case, “we are in government, not because we have any content affinity with the SPD and the Greens, but because we recognize our responsibility to the country,” Mr. Lindner said. The stay in the government, however, does not bode well. From Washington and the headquarters of the IMF, the liberal finance minister admitted that Germany will not cope with the crisis like other countries and – most importantly – announced “fiscal rampart” measures, hinting that he will ask for tax cuts, which is not in the program agreement of the three partners. By the end of the month the three partners should have agreed on specific measures.

Before that, SPD, Greens and FDP should have found a solution to the operation of nuclear power plants, which is becoming an identity issue for both Greens and Liberals. Once it became clear that energy would be a “rare commodity” for the coming winter and that there would be no deliveries of Russian natural gas, the discussion inevitably turned to the possibility of keeping nuclear plants running to cover any shortfalls. Green Economy Minister Robert Habeck, after much pressure – from the market and the media – has now agreed to keep two of the three remaining nuclear plants, which were scheduled to be shut down for good at the end of the year, as backups until the spring. The Liberals, on the other hand, are asking not only for the existing plants to continue producing electricity, but also for some already closed ones to reopen.

To understand how difficult it will be to reach an agreement within the governing coalition, it is enough to remember that the Greens have based their existence on denuclearization for decades, while the Liberals, after the “revolution” in order not to introduce a speed limit on the highways and to unmask the mass media, they are desperately looking for policies with a true “anti-left” label, in order to separate their position from their partners. Welt characteristically writes that the coalition still has 12 months to live, i.e. until the state elections in Bavaria…

The paradox for Christian Lindner is that in 2017 he avoided entering the government coalition under Angela Merkel, fearing that history would repeat itself and the flexible centrist chancellor would again … wipe out the FDP, as happened in 2009-2013. In 2021 he believed, on the contrary, that he could practice a distinct policy alongside the SPD and the Greens. The road to 2025 is long and difficult…

RES-EMP

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