Sylvia Colombo: Six reasons to be concerned about Cuba

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Cuba has entered a new phase of turmoil and uncertainty, with discontent being expressed in the streets, repression acting strong and the economic crisis further degrading the quality of life of Cubans, who return to migrate in large numbers. The protests, this time, are not like those of July 11, 2021, massive, but they have taken place in a regular and diluted way, in large and small centers, animated by small groups of activists, in order to try to circumvent the repression of the regime. , which remains intense and will become even more draconian from December.

It is the country’s worst crisis since the 1990s, after the end of the Soviet Union.

Here are 6 reasons to keep an eye on what is happening on the island, which could be definitive in setting the course for the dictatorial regime led by Miguel Díaz-Canel.

  1. The blackout caused by the hurricane

The passage of Hurricane Ian left the island completely dark, destroying houses, buildings and businesses, especially in the region of Pinar del Río. Although after a week the regime announced the restitution of services, this restoration is still not complete, and blackouts have not only punished the daily life of the population but also affected the functioning of essential services such as medical centers.

The episode has taken people to the streets, not massively like on July 11, 2021, but in smaller, more spontaneous groups. Protesters have also joined protests that are more difficult to repress, such as intense “panelaços” in different parts of the island or cuts and obstructions of roads and streets during the night.

The cry for “light” was soon replaced by “freedom”. The protests have not been organized by a specific group, but by initiatives of groups of citizens through social networks.

2. Repression is heavy

As soon as the first outbreaks of protests were registered, security forces arrived to break up larger groups, and plainclothes officers began to try to infiltrate the small groups. Supporters of the regime were also summoned to shout against the protesters. Several arrests were made, according to reports by independent journalists, although local NGOs do not yet have an official accounting.

A resident of the Playa district, without identifying herself, told the website “14ymedio”: “When the officers arrived, people who were beating pots in the street ran out, as it was night and there was no light, they grabbed very few. that they put people in cage trucks. There were elderly people and minors”.

Realizing that the protests were taking place through internet calls, through cell phones, the regime used an old tactic, that of cutting off service in general. The island was without any internet for several days, and only in the last few weeks some videos of the protests began to circulate through the accounts of independent journalists and the few international media and agencies that still operate on the island.

3. A repression will get worse

As of December 1st, a new penal code will come into force on the island, which will further restrict fundamental rights such as freedom of expression and the press. The death penalty, which existed practically as a dead letter, can now be applied to a list of 23 crimes, most related to “state security”. There will be more rules for transport in general, regulating aviation and maritime transit and with tough sentences for illegal transit. Penalties will be increased for various offenses such as illegally receiving donations, funding unrecognized NGOs and websites. The age of criminal responsibility will also be reduced to 16 years.

This prospect despairs dissidents and anti-regime activists, who have seen hundreds of protesters who took to the streets in 2021 receive wildly exaggerated condemnations for merely participating in protests. Of the 1,395 arrested on July 11, 728 remain in prison — and the trials are trickling. Since then, according to official figures, 128 people have been sentenced to a total of 1,916 years in prison.

4. The economic situation is deteriorating

The expected improvement in tourist activity with the decrease in Covid-19 cases did not occur, as it was one of the main regular inflows of money in the country. On the other hand, the nefarious economic embargo still stands. If before the pandemic there was a lack of food, medicine and all kinds of products, the shortage situation today is much worse.

Even without the hurricane, the energy supply on the island was no longer the best, with aging structures and poor maintenance, exacerbated by the shortage of oil due to the Venezuelan crisis. There is also a transport crisis, since filling up the tank in the country is expensive and long lines have to be faced.

Inflation last year was more than 152%, according to The Economist. The opening of spaces for the private sector, which began timidly in the period of Raúl Castro, was slightly expanded by Díaz-Canel after the protests. Supplying these businesses, however, is still complicated and the operation is full of bureaucracy. Even so, in the last two years, 5,000 new small businesses have appeared on the island. They are mostly small businesses.

5. Immigration remains very high

From October 2021 to today, nearly 200,000 Cubans have been caught trying to cross the US-Mexico border, four times as many as the previous two years combined, according to US government data. Legally, in 2022, 400% more Cubans entered the country than in 2021. In a country where migration for economic and political reasons has been a constant since the late 1950s, these numbers speak for themselves.

6. Civil rights “for English to see”

Faced with such a situation, it seems a joke that international media and part of the foreign community have celebrated the farce that was the plebiscite on the Code of Families that, among other things, legalized equal marriage. This is a basic right, obviously, but it could simply be included in the Constitution by decree, as there are so many arbitrary decisions in the country.

The armed circus was a clear diversion of attention, an attempt to show the island as a country that is modernizing by recognizing a few rights, when it remains a dictatorship that only improves its apparatus of repression and control, without taking care of the basic rights of citizens. . Democracy is still a distant dream for Cubans.

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