The conflict between the Ethiopian government and separatist forces in the Tigray region again gained uncertain contours this Monday (17). Days after both sides agreed to resume talks, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali’s forces announced the retaking of Shire, one of the largest cities in the north of the country, which was under the control of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). .
As the government reported on the progress, UN Secretary-General António Guterres went public saying that “the situation in Ethiopia is spiraling out of control” and that “violence and destruction have reached alarming levels”.
This Sunday (16), the president of the African Union, Moussa Faki Mahamat, had increased the calls for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the region, with both parties saying they were willing to follow it. Addis Ababa, however, did so with the self-contradiction of the promise to maintain its military operations.
“We are determined to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict through peace negotiations mediated by the AU,” the Ethiopian government said, in the same statement in which it said “it is obliged to take defensive measures to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country in the face of repeated attacks.” [dos rebeldes]”.
Thus, Ahmed’s forces called it “imperative to take immediate control of all airports and infrastructure” on Tigris.
The separatists, for their part, said they were ready for an immediate ceasefire and urged the international community to pressure two governments: the Ethiopian “to sit at the negotiating table” and the Eritrean to remove its forces from the neighboring country. Eritrea supports Addis Ababa’s troops, with soldiers assisting in military actions in the north.
Indeed, the European Union made these requests, extending the call to end operations to TPLF forces. Diplomats from the West and even other African countries have expressed concern about Eritrean involvement, citing the risk that even Ethiopia does not have control over the ally.
Defining the nightmarish situation of the local population, Guterres stressed that “all parties must allow and facilitate the rapid and unhindered passage of humanitarian aid to all civilians in need”. According to the diplomat, these deliveries have been stalled for seven weeks, as has assistance in Amhara and Afar, when 13 million people need assistance.
According to the UN, almost 90% of people in Tigré need help, malnutrition rates have soared and the situation is expected to worsen this month.
Civil war broke out in November 2020 and spread to neighboring regions in mid-2021. A truce was agreed in March this year, but ended on August 24, when conflict between Eritrean and Ethiopian forces against separatists resumed.
Behind the conflict are historic ethnic disputes. The current prime minister – the first of the ethnic Omora to assume power – is accused of persecuting the Tigris, who ruled Ethiopia for three decades. Ahmed became prime minister in 2018 with a speech of privileging national sentiment over divisions. A Nobel Peace Prize winner, he went on to implement liberal reforms, but quickly clashed with the TPLF, putting his speech in check.
For Tigré’s leaders, Ahmed’s projects aimed at centralizing power and, therefore, at the loss of regional autonomy — one of the political pillars of recent decades.
Armed clashes have already displaced millions of people, pushing considerable portions of the region to famine and leaving thousands of civilians dead. Malnutrition affects between 16% and 28% of children and about 50% of pregnant and lactating women.
In September, the UN human rights agency said there was reasonable evidence that war crimes were committed by both sides – who deny abuses. The resumption of dialogues, promised for the beginning of this month in South Africa, was postponed, still without confirmation of a new date.
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