Netanyahu will have fragile majority and could return to power in Israel, says exit

Former Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s party came out of Tuesday’s parliamentary election with the most votes, according to exit polls released by major local TV channels. Your party’s alliance must achieve 61 or 62 seats in the 120-seat Parliament.

This was the 5th election since March 2019, capping a deep political stalemate. Despite the fatigue with the volume of elections, a record number of voters turned out to the polls — voting is not mandatory in the country. The figure of 72% is the highest since 1999, in a possible sign that the population wants this to be the last round of voting in the near future.

If a majority of 61 or 62 seats is confirmed for his bloc, the former prime minister will then have the chance to assemble the next governing coalition, in an attempt to regain the post he lost in the March 2021 election, when a coalition of national union with eight heterogeneous parties took the reins of the country – the “geingonça” fell after losing majority and bowing under the weight of internal divisions.

Netanyahu’s political aptitude cannot be underestimated. At 73, he has held the prime minister’s chair for 15 years (12 in a row, from 2009 to 2021) and is considered the most charismatic and skilled politician the country has ever had.

Once the official votes are tallied and officially handed over to President Isaac Herzog, he is likely to give Netanyahu three weeks to put together the next government — the politician can still ask for another week, totaling a month of negotiations.

If he fails, Herzog could grant the sewing privilege to the second-placed premier, current premier Yair Lapid, 58, leader of Yesh Atid (There’s a Future). He would also have a month and, in case of eventual failure, new elections will be called. Yesh Atid is expected to have 22 to 24 seats, a historic number for someone who entered politics just ten years ago and was seen as inexperienced.

Throughout the day, the top candidates tried to get the attention of potential voters through pre-recorded phone calls, WhatsApp and SMS messages, social media posts or sharing emotional photos and videos. Lapid, for example, visited the grave of his father, former Justice Minister Tommy Lapid, who died in 2008. Netanyahu took cameramen to the Western Wall in Jerusalem, as did current Defense Minister Benny Gantz of the Machané coalition. Mamlachtit (National Camp).

The main message of the media blitz was what Israelis call a request for “Gewalt”, a Yiddish expression that means something like a desperate “Oh my God!” The idea is to sensitize voters to vote for their parties.

The leaders who used this subterfuge the most were those of the parties that are in danger of not being able to join the Knesset — at least 3.25% of the votes are needed for that. Among them are the three from the Arab minority (Ra’am, Hadash-Ta’al and Balad), the traditional leftists (Meretz and Avodá) and the far-right Bait Yehudi, ex-Yamina of Interior Minister Ayeled Shaked.

The biggest surprise of the election was the far-right coalition Otzmá Yehudit (Força Judaica), formed by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, parliamentarians who defend the expulsion of Arab citizens who do not pledge allegiance to Israel and oppose the rights of the LGBTQIA+ community. The exit poll indicates that the coalition should have 15 seats in Parliament, making it the third political force in the country.

The explanation for their success is complex, but it can be summed up in the idea that they offer quick and hard solutions to the conflict with the Palestinians with radical messages that young people and residents of the periphery — but not only them — appreciate.

If Netanyahu manages to form a government, he has already promised that Smotrich and Ben-Gvir will be ministers. Both aim at the Defense and Homeland Security portfolios. The possibility disgusts the country’s left and center voters and could lead to Israel having the most right-wing government in its history.