Russia backed down on Wednesday (2) and announced that it will maintain the agreement with Ukraine that allows the export of grain and fertilizer from the eastern European country through the Black Sea. The treaty, brokered by the UN and Turkey, had been suspended by the Kremlin four days ago after Kiev attacked the Russian fleet in the region with alleged help from London.
The turnaround took place, once again, under the mediation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a figure who in theory supports Kiev in the conflict, but who in practice has strong ties to Moscow. On Tuesday (1), the Turkish leader assured Vladimir Putin that Ukraine will not use the corridor where ships travel or Ukrainian ports to attack Russian bases in the region.
Ankara, by the way, is one of the main destinations for exported grain – which, in a way, justifies Erdogan’s interest in the negotiations.
The heart of the imbroglio is in an operation by Kiev against the Russian base of the Black Sea Fleet, in Sevastopol, last Saturday (29). At the time, the Ukrainians damaged a minesweeper and a containment network in Yuzhnaia Bay using aerial and submarine drones. The attack was the most audacious since the explosion that hit the Crimean bridge in October. That’s because the fleet, despite being down, is symbolic to the Russians, having been established in 1783.
The operation drew even more attention from the Kremlin because, according to the Russians, it had the help of the United Kingdom. This is the first time Moscow has accused a NATO member country of actively participating in an attack on its infrastructure.
Even so, Russia announced this Wednesday that it will summon the British ambassador in Moscow to deal with the matter – on the day of the attack, London denied the accusations. The United Kingdom, along with Poland and the Baltic countries, is among the most pressing European countries to adopt sanctions against Russia.
In any case, the end of the suspension of the grain export agreement relieves the market and the global community – Russia and Ukraine are among the world’s biggest wheat exporters. When the agreement was signed in July, the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, said that the negotiation would lead to a reduction in extreme poverty in the world, since the pact directly influences the price of food on the market, which benefits from a greater stock of these commodities.
Negotiations, however, were not able to restore all grain sales from Ukraine. On Wednesday, the country’s Ministry of Agriculture reported that exports this year dropped 32% compared to last year. Kiev says that due to the loss of land to Russian forces, it is expected to harvest up to 52 million tonnes of grain this year, down from a record 86 million tonnes in 2021.
Russia also benefits from the sales and, consequently, from the agreement. According to analyst Tatiana Stanovaia, the country’s profit in this sector, in fact, was crucial for the turnaround of the Kremlin. “No matter how worried Putin is about Ukraine, he remains a rational politician who knows how to back off if necessary,” she told Reuters.
In any case, the apparent indecision of the Russian president served as ammunition for his adversaries in the conflict. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said, for example, that Moscow’s move reinforced the importance of, she said, ignoring Putin’s blackmail — exports continued even after the Kremlin’s announcement of the deal’s suspension.
Still in the field of retaliation against Moscow, Poland announced that it will build a barbed wire fence on its border with Kaliningrad, a Russian territory between the European country and Lithuania. Warsaw’s fear is that Putin will use the exclave to encourage illegal immigration into Europe, as Belarus dictator Aleksandr Lukachenko did last year.
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