President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) won the second round contest against Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in most countries with Brazilians eligible to vote abroad.
The PT obtained 51.28% of the votes cast outside the country, against 48.72% for the current president and a defeated candidate for reelection. The margin of 2.6 percentage points surpasses the difference observed in the overall result of what was the tightest presidential election in history (50.90% to 49.10%).
This year, Lula was the most voted in 58 countries and lost to Bolsonaro in another 40. In the previous election, the then PSL candidate surpassed Fernando Haddad (PT) in 71 territories and lost only in 26 — the list of locations changed between two editions, with the departure of Ukraine and the inclusion of Bulgaria and Bahrain.
The comfortable advantage obtained by Bolsonaro four years ago, of 71.02% against 28.98% of votes valid abroad, far surpassed the difference in the total balance of the dispute (55.13% to 44.87%).
After the result was announced, leaders around the world recognized Lula’s victory, including Bolsonaro-aligned rulers such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni.
In the campaign, Lula repeated that Brazil became frowned upon on the international scene during the Bolsonaro government. “What I hear most is that the world misses that sovereign Brazil, which spoke as equals. Brazil is too big to be relegated to this sad role of pariah,” he said after the victory.
With all the polls counted, Lula obtained 152,905 votes abroad, and Bolsonaro, 145,264. In 2018, the current president received the support of 131,671 voters outside Brazil, against 53,730 for Haddad.
This year, the PT managed to turn around in 31 countries, and Bolsonaro did not reverse the result in any place where he lost to Haddad. The most important turnarounds took place in Portugal and Canada.
In the European country, the PT lost four years ago by 3,816 votes (Bolsonaro’s victory by 8,190 to 4,374). Now, it has imposed an advantage of 10,175 voters (23,256 to 13,081). It was the largest margin in favor of the president-elect in this year’s race. Thus, in percentage terms, the acronym jumped from 34.81% of valid votes obtained by the former mayor of São Paulo among Brazilians living in Portugal to 64% with Lula.
In Canada, support for the PT rose from 36.44% in the previous election to 61.61% this year. The party, which lost by 3,139 votes in 2018 (7,358 to 4,219), had 4,968 more votes than Bolsonaro (13,181 to 8,213) now.
In continental terms, PT’s biggest advantage abroad was achieved in Europe, the region with the largest number of registered voters. Lula won in 25 of 26 countries, with the exception of Greece.
The president-elect received, in all, 90,351 votes in the Old Continent, against 44,035 for Bolsonaro, which is equivalent to 67.23% of the preferences among Brazilians who live there.
Bolsonaro’s best performance was in Asia. The current president got the support of 31,108 voters, and Lula, 10,017. The balance represents 75.64% of the votes valid on the continent for the PL candidate.
The biggest difference in votes in favor of Bolsonaro was registered in Japan, the second country with more Brazilians entitled to vote abroad, only behind the US. The re-election candidate surpassed the challenger by 22,228 votes (27,640 to 5,412) and won with 83.63% of the valid votes in the Asian country.
Bolsonaro also won in the United States, the largest electoral college outside the national territory, with 65.39% of the votes. The difference was 20,996 voters in favor of the current president (44,596 to 23,600).
Lula finished ahead in the other schools with more than 20,000 Brazilians able to participate in the vote. In addition to the aforementioned Canada, it won with 82.94% of the preference in France, 76.89% in Germany, 64.62% in Spain, 60.15% in the United Kingdom, 55.37% in Italy and 52.22 % in Switzerland.
In South America, with smaller schools, Bolsonaro was the winner in eight countries (Venezuela, Guyana, Paraguay, Bolivia, Suriname, Ecuador, Peru and Chile) and in the overseas territory of French Guiana and lost in three (Argentina, Colombia and Uruguay). The total result was 57.52% to 42.48% for the PL candidate.
The number of voters registered to vote outside Brazil jumped from 499,000 to 694,000 compared to the second round of 2018, according to the TSE (Superior Electoral Court). Historically higher than in the national territory, the abstention rate dropped from 59.8% to 55.4% between the two editions.
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