US Midterm Elections: Who’s Winning, Who’s Losing, and What It Means

Several hours after the midterm election polls closed on USAit starts to become clear who is winning, who is the loser and what will change in the next period, until 2024, when the presidential elections will be held.

The polls show a victory for the Republicans, but not the… triumph that some over-optimists expected. Republicans have already lost a congressman in Pennsylvania and need to pick up two seats from three states (Nevada, Arizona, Georgia), in order to control the body.

These in the House of Representatives, because in Congress, we are watching a derby, with the Democrats putting up strong resistance.

What do the results so far “show” in more detail? They show prevalence of Republicansbut with lower percentages than expected, but also show great disappointment for the Democrats, huge losses, especially for the so-called “stars”, the statesmen promoted by the Democrats as the proposals for the next day.

More specifically, the conclusions are as follows:

1. The Republicans are on track to win the House of Representatives

Even with Democrats gaining some districts, it appears that Republicans are well on their way to a majority in the House of Representatives. But the question is how big a majority it will be.

Thanks to their surprisingly strong showing in 2020, Republicans were just a few seats away from a majority. And they started this election with a built-in advantage after some new congressional districts were redrawn in conservative states.

With any form of majority, Republicans will be able to close the door on the Democrats’ legislative agenda and intensify investigations into the Biden administration. This is a win by any measure. And it is critical, because on the one hand they will be able to “brake” Joe Biden’s movements and on the other, maintain their own agenda, influencing the American public until the crucial presidential elections.

But if the margin is narrow, Republicans will have to exercise incredible tactical and strategic skill to hold their party together in the big votes.

2. Florida re-elects Republican Ron DeSandis

Four years ago, Ron DeSantis won the Florida governorship by a fraction of a percentage point over Democrat Andrew Gillum. After four years of conservative leadership, where he pivoted to cultural issues such as transgender rights and “critical race theory,” he railed against the restrictions of the coronavirus pandemic and won re-election by a comfortable margin.

How he did it is especially remarkable.

In 2018, he lost the Democratic stronghold of Miami-Dade County by 20%. This year, he’s on track to be the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win in a majority-Hispanic district since Jeb Bush in 2002. He might even do it by a double-digit margin.

DeSantis’ move to redraw the state’s district lines to heavily favor Republican candidates has also paid dividends nationally, as his party has won at least two of the five seats it needs to win control of the House of Representatives. .

These successes will go a long way in helping the Florida governor to have a strong base to tap into to launch a presidential campaign if he so chooses.

The possibility of DeSanctis running for president is not out of the question, as at Tuesday night’s campaign rally, the crowd chanted “two more years,” with the governor himself reacting with a tacit admission. If Mr. DeSantis wants to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, he may have to go past his state’s most prominent Republican resident, former President Donald Trump, who has already begun campaigning.

3. Trump’s shadow has shrunk

Donald Trump may not have been on the ballots but he’s still casting his shadow over them. Earlier in the evening, the former president made a brief speech from his home in Mar-a-Lago and won a landslide victory for his candidates.

The truth, however, is more complicated. In the highest-profile contests, where he has supported candidates against more mainstream Republican options, his choices have struggled. Mehmet Oz (also a man of Recep Tayyip Erdogan) lost his Senate race in Pennsylvania. Herschel Walker looks to be headed to a runoff at Georgia. Blake Masters is next in Arizona. Only JD Vance in Ohio managed a clear victory, albeit by a smaller margin than he had anticipated.

Republicans are going to be guessing about his political instincts after Tuesday night. And if he does launch a new bid for the presidency next week, it will be a step back from what he thought up until now.

4. Disappointment for Democratic stars

In 2018, Beto O’Rourke in Texas and Stacey Abrams in Georgia lost their statewide races but won Democratic favor. Their ability to raise millions of dollars in campaign funds and build impressive grassroots roots led many on the left to see them as the future of the party.

Supporters hoped they would be able to pull it off, but they were disappointed. Ms. Abrams, who narrowly lost to Republican Brian Kemp four years ago, will finish well behind him this time. Mr. O’Rourke lost his race to Republican Governor Greg Abbott by a larger margin than he lost to Senator Ted Cruz.

Democrats should look for new stars.

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