G20: Geopolitical games on Asian soil

Top leaders rush to Indonesia for G20 summit. Most begin preliminary contacts and tours several days in advance. Some are informally attending the ASEAN Summit in Cambodia, such as US President Joe Biden. Others are opting for bilateral contacts with an eye on emerging economies, such as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visiting Vietnam and Singapore. It is a foretaste of the future, which carries new geopolitical stakes, promising opportunities, but also unpredictable geopolitical crises in the region of Southeast Asia and the Pacific Ocean.

Example: Participants at this year’s Asia-Pacific Economic Forum on the German Economy in Singapore told the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that if the extreme geopolitical scenario of a Chinese attack on Taiwan ever materializes, Germany would be faced with problems much more serious than the increase in natural gas prices in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine. A greater “diversification” of the country’s strategic partnerships is already being considered in Germany. If it were an investment product, we would talk about a greater “risk spread”. The point is that in the future Germany does not find itself in a commercial dependence on China, similar or even more painful than the energy dependence on Russia, in which it had fallen in recent years.

But this is not easy. Speaking to the financial magazine Handelsblatt, the head of Siemens, Roland Bush, warns that “differentiation” from China is not possible without … China itself! And this is because, as he argues, “in China, among other things, the German economy earns a large part of the revenue that it will use for new investments, either for research and development, or to establish itself in new markets. (…) Whoever wants to achieve higher growth in new emerging markets will have to finance it through profitability in the markets that already exist.”

First meeting between Biden and Xi Jinping

For the Americans, but also for many Southeast Asian countries, China is perceived primarily as a geopolitical player. Not only because its rhetorical confrontation with Taiwan is intensifying, but mainly because it is arming itself at a frantic pace. It already has the largest land army and most powerful fleet in the wider region, and, according to US estimates, it plans to deploy at least 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. Speaking at the latest Chinese Communist Party congress in October, Chinese President Xi Jinping made clear that the country’s armaments program will continue, due to the “volatile geopolitical environment”.

In an effort to respond to Chinese equipment, neighboring Japan is increasing defense spending, while, according to the Yomyuri Shibun newspaper, it plans to install more than 1,000 long-range missiles at the southern tip of the country and on islands near Taiwan. With them, in theory, he will be able to hit the Chinese coast, but also North Korea. A permanent focus of crisis in Southeast Asia is the Korean peninsula, but in recent years the tension seems to be escalating in the Taiwan Strait as well.

As unquestionable as China’s primacy in the region is, the strategic alliance with Japan and South Korea, perhaps even with Taiwan, is self-evident for the US. In the prelude to the G20 summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping met for the first time with his American counterpart Joe Biden. “We understand each other, I want to make sure there are no misunderstandings between us,” said Biden meaningfully, who a few days ago pointed out that “we need to clarify where our ‘red lines’ are and what are the most important issues for us in the next two years”. For his part, Xi Jinping stated that “the resolution of the Taiwan issue is China’s internal matter” and “reunification is the wish of the entire Chinese people.” Of course, the two leaders still have a lot to say. According to US sources, Biden is set to visit China in early 2023.

No major decisions are expected

The G20 group, which includes the most powerful industrialized countries of the West and the largest emerging markets – among them Turkey – was first established in 1999 at the level of finance ministers. It represents two-thirds of the world’s population and 90% of the world’s GDP.

Breakthrough decisions are probably not expected at the Indonesian meeting, neither on Sino-American relations, nor on the war in Ukraine – when Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, has canceled his participation. A question of particular Greek interest is whether Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s efforts for a bilateral meeting with Joe Biden on the sidelines of the summit will succeed.

DW – Giannis Papadimitriou

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