After the Democratic Party secured a significant victory and ensured the maintenance of control of the Senate for the next two years, its Republican rivals confirmed this Wednesday (16) the majority in the House of Representatives of the United States, as predicted by the polls.
The new configuration alters President Joe Biden’s governance among deputies in the second half of his term. The general composition of the Legislature, however, still guarantees some breath to the Democrat, who was at risk of losing control of both Houses in the midst of a low moment in his popularity.
The Republican Party reached the mark of 218 representatives elected in the midterms, mid-term elections, with the projections of American broadcasters for the 27th district of California. The election, held on the 8th, renews the entire Chamber and a third of the Senate, among other state positions.
With the new majority in the House, Democrat Nancy Pelosi, Biden’s ally and notorious opponent of Donald Trump, will leave the presidency of the House. Kevin McCarthy (also from California), now minority leader, is expected to be nominated for the post.
Shortly after this Wednesday’s projections, Biden released a statement in which he claims that the elections demonstrated “the strength and resilience” of American democracy. “There was strong rejection of election denialists, political violence and intimidation. There was an emphatic statement that, in the US, the will of the people prevails”, says the note.
Biden congratulated McCarthy and said he was “ready to work” with the opposing party’s deputies. “Voters clearly expressed their concerns: the need to reduce costs, protect the right to choose and preserve our democracy. The future is too bright to be locked into a political war. I will work with anyone willing to work with me to deliver results for the public.” .”
Without a majority, the president will have more difficulty approving projects that are important to his agenda, such as packages to combat the climate crisis and control access to weapons. You should also see Republicans open commissions of investigation against federal management, similar to the one that investigates the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol – which, incidentally, is at risk of being suspended; Trump had been subpoenaed to testify to the collegiate until this Monday (14).
It is speculated that the possible investigations target the chaotic process of withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan, suspicious business dealings by Hunter Biden, the president’s son, and an alleged political use of the Department of Justice in cases against Trump.
The delay in defining the control of the House was mainly due to the counting of votes on the west coast of the country, with many disputes extremely competitive in California, but also in Arizona and Colorado. In the first state, there is the possibility that some districts will take weeks to define the winner. In Maricopa County, home to Arizona’s capital Phoenix, checking each of the signatures on mail-in ballots also slowed down the count.
The picture contrasts with that of previous midterms. In 2018, for example, CNN was able to project that the Democrats would have control of the House by 11 pm on the same election day.
Losing control of the legislature (or part of it) mid-term is common. Since Jimmy Carter (1977-1981), only George W. Bush (2001-2009) managed to maintain a majority of Congress in the midterms, in 2002, in the post-9/11 period —in 2006, in his second term, however, he was defeated . But the result in the end came out better than the order for Biden.
It had been predicted for months that the Republicans would win the majority in the House, but the margin was much smaller than expected. Voting intention polls, analysts and politicians themselves expected a “red wave” that would bring an overwhelming majority of opposition to the president to Congress, which was not confirmed.
Democrats managed to retain seats in states where surveys pointed to Republican swings, such as those of Abigail Spanberger (Virginia), Seth Magaziner (Rhode Island) and Chris Pappas (New Hampshire). In three tight Texas races, the Democrats won two.
A number of reasons help explain the caption’s performance — and at the top of the list is the right to abortion. In June, the Supreme Court overturned a decision that guaranteed the voluntary interruption of pregnancy as a constitutional right, which motivated a number of voters to register to vote in defense of the right to choose, even in more conservative states, boosting Democrats.
Republicans also blame Trump for insisting on radical names with no political experience, which ended up alienating more moderate voters. The weak performance of those endorsed by the former president reorganized the correlation of forces in the party and even threatens his new candidacy, announced this Tuesday.
The underperformance can be measured against the last two times Democratic presidents have seen defeats in the midterms. In 2010, in the first of Barack Obama, the Republicans turned 63 seats. At the beginning of the Bill Clinton administration, in 1994, 54. The same situation occurred when Democrats regained control of the House in 2018, under Trump, when Republicans lost 41 seats.
Without the House, but with the Senate, Biden is in the same situation as his predecessor, which is useful to avoid losing office in an eventual serious political crisis – Trump had two impeachments approved in the House, but barred in the Senate.
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