Donald Trump is running for president… again. The announcement landed with a dull thud.
He’s missing the moment. His steam is running out. Presidential politics is a matter of alignment – each person finds a moment for which he or she is uniquely suited and positioned. Trump had such a moment in 2016 — with foreign aid, of course — but six years later, the country has changed. And so was he.
He is no longer new to the political space. He is no longer the underdog and outsider. The narrative soured. He is a twice-impeached president who lost re-election, undermined his party in the last three elections and is wading through an ocean of legal troubles. The arc of the story is one of descent and despair, fading light and dim prospects.
The smell of defeat lingers on a candidate. That’s why Trump tried so hard to convince the world that he didn’t lose. But he lost. And now Trumpism is losing.
Then there is changeable nature or republican fanaticism. Conservatives, by and large, are addicted to the political equivalent of the tent rebirth ritual: they want belief, they want affirmation, they hype the itinerant preacher until that person leaves and the next one arrives.
They are adrenaline junkies who form serial bonds with the defenders of their wrath. Your devotion to one of them seems total, until it crumbles or is supplanted by another. They are addicted to the feeling of falling in love.
Trump is just the latest love affair, but it will inevitably end. The seasons always change; the rose ends up wilting.
In 1994, Newt Gingrich released his Contract with America, a list of conservative principles and policies. Republicans managed to pass many of them through the legislative process, but their undoing came when they focused on personally attacking Bill Clinton rather than extolling their own successes. The midterm elections of 1998 resulted in heavy losses for the party.
The previous year, Gingrich had been reprimanded for ethical violations. After the disappointing results of 1998, he resigned as Speaker of the House, and a few months later he would resign from the House altogether.
In November 1994, according to Gallup, just over half of Americans had a favorable view of Gingrich. When he resigned, his approval ratings were low, and more than a decade later, when he ran for president in 2012, The Washington Post called him “America’s most hated politician”.
In 2010, the Tea Party movement had the support of 52% of Republicans, according to Gallup. Five years later, that support had dropped by about half. Now researchers rarely ask about the Tea Party.
In 2008, John McCain foisted Sarah Palin on the country when he chose the Republican governor as his vice presidential candidate. Palin was divisive, fiery, and prone to deviating from the truth. But in the beginning, she was popular with Republicans.
In 2010, she was the most favored presidential candidate among Republicans for the 2012 race. However, that year Palin lost a special election for a House seat to a Democrat in Alaska, the Republican state where Trump won in 2016 and 2020.
At the height of his party popularity, it would be hard to imagine the downfall of any of these figures. But happened. And it will likely happen to Trump.
For decades, conservatives have been a mass of anguish and rage ready to latch onto the next burning wagon. They convince themselves, for the moment, that some principle is driving their interests – economic restraint, secure borders, anti-social conscience – but it’s really just perpetual rebellion against inclusion and enlightenment. For them, change, growth and evolution are the enemy.
I admit that change and growth can be tricky; there may be missteps, which conservatives will inevitably use as an indictment of change. But change is irrepressible and inevitable.
Therefore, many Republicans cling to people who represent resistance and regression, people who claim to have the ability and desire to freeze time and reverse it. They want to be seduced by the siren song.
Trump offered them what they wanted, but it couldn’t last. It wasn’t made to last. The pattern should repeat itself. A new message and messenger must be anointed.
I’m not saying that Trump has completely lost control of his party. I’m stating a fact – that his support is falling – and noting a precedent – that charismatic conservative leaders always decline.
Trump will not run because he has a vision for the country, or because he has a political agenda. Trump will run because he has no other options. He will run to protect himself from legal trouble (he hopes). He will run for revenge. He will run because the Trump family business today is political exploitation.
With a wealth of experience honed over 4+ years in journalism, I bring a seasoned voice to the world of news. Currently, I work as a freelance writer and editor, always seeking new opportunities to tell compelling stories in the field of world news.
