What does the 2021 Latinobarometer tell us about the valuation of institutions and democracy in Latin America? Alarms keep ringing. The pandemic has shaken the foundations of society and its institutions, but it has amply demonstrated that democracy is the best possible system for navigating the roughest tides. This learning has also spread, albeit discreetly, in Latin American thinking regarding how the region’s citizens value democracy.
Dissatisfaction with democracy in Latin America
The most recent report by the Latinobarómetro Corporation, published in October 2021, has a sample taken in the midst of the coronavirus crisis between October 2020 and May 2021, records a small decrease in dissatisfaction with democracy as a system of government: 70%, two percentage points less than those recorded in the last 2018 report. Thus, satisfaction barely increased by one percentage point, reaching 25%. It’s meager, timid and, unfortunately, declining trust. The main actors of democracy, the political parties, suffered an unparalleled setback. Only 29% of respondents in the 18 countries of Latin America report party proximity. In 2015, this number was 40%.
While dissatisfaction with the democratic system in Latin America grows, the region has an average of 49% support for democracy. The most dramatic cases of low support for democracy are found in Honduras (30%), Guatemala (37%), Brazil (40%), Mexico (43%) and El Salvador (46%).
One of the interesting questions the survey asks respondents is their adherence to Winston Churchill’s phrase: “Democracy may have its problems, but it’s the best system of government.” In 2013, Latinobarómetro recorded the highest amount of support for this statement: 79%. Since then, the fall of this indicator has not stopped. In 2020, it was 63%.
The Rise of the Hard Hand as a Popular Idea in Latin America
The decline in democracy support numbers is correlated with support for authoritarianism, the possibility of military rule and populism. Roughly speaking, the new Latinobarómetro says that 31% of Latin Americans would support a military government to replace a democratic government and 51% would not mind “that an undemocratic government came to power if it solved the problems”. That’s two percentage points more than in 2008. These numbers speak of a situation prior to the pandemic. Supporting democracy in Latin America requires a boost and the yellow (almost red) lights are on.
How much louder should the alarms sound? In summary, 7 out of 10 people are dissatisfied with the democratic system, and only 3 out of 10 say they have sympathy for some party. Our democracies are running out of popular support and militants.
the paradox of power
Currently, which actors do we least trust who have the most power? Are trust and power disconnected? These are typical reflection questions in the context of autocracies. However, in the region, with more democracies than authoritarianism, the Latinobarómetro shows that citizens’ trust is not placed mainly in the political elite responsible for running the boat. It is headed by the church (65%), followed by the Armed Forces (44%), the police (36%) and then the first political actor: the president (33%). Parliament (20%) and political parties (13%) appear at the bottom of the list when asked about institutional trust.
The numbers presented by the Latinobarómetro on democracy in Latin America in its 2021 report are worrying. They directly question the work of the political system as a whole. Especially political parties. These signs appear in a context of crisis of democratic institutionality in several countries and the consolidation of autocratic experiences such as those in Venezuela and Nicaragua, and the historic permanence of the Cuban dictatorship.
But also, the rise of some populisms that, from different points of the political spectrum (such as Mexico with a left-wing government and El Salvador and Brazil with right-wing governments), influence the public perception of democracy as the system that guarantees freedoms. and social consensus.
Original text published in Political Dialogue
Translation from Spanish by Maria Isabel Santos Lima
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