Shorter reins for the private sector, regulation of algorithms and prohibition of cryptocurrencies. The energy crisis and pressure on climate goals. The housing crisis. The flexibilization of the one-child policy. Vaccine diplomacy against Covid and the announcement of supply of 1 billion doses to Africa. A space station under construction. A landing on Mars. The concern with technology and self-sufficiency. The centenary of the Chinese Communist Party.
The year 2021 was an intense one for China. However, more than doing a retrospective, it is worth reflecting on what really matters. The task is risky in the heat of events, but here are four possible turning points. The facts are associated with 2021, but mark changes in the trajectory with an impact on China in the coming years.
1) 2021 was the year in which geopolitical tensions permanently changed Beijing’s calculations about its foreign performance. With the European Union, an investment agreement signed and signed in December 2020 was put on the fridge. As for the US, any illusions that with Joe Biden the bilateral relationship would improve evaporated. With Australia, nuclear submarines entered the picture. In relation to Japan and India, mutual distrust increased.
China is preparing for an international scenario that is more resistant to its rise — it knows that, more than before, geopolitical concerns outweigh economic interests in some capitals. At the same time, it reinforces its links with Russia and with the developing world, which, to a large extent, wants to distance itself from the geopolitical rivalry of the greats.
2) 2021 was the year Taiwan returned to the international spotlight — and the subject will not go away. The possibility of a confrontation started to be discussed in different places, albeit with a good deal of exaggeration, dangerously fueling a prophecy that could come true.
This year, Biden flirted with the shift in the US stance on Taipei, something that has been going on for four decades. As never before, Beijing has made it clear that the goal of national rejuvenation, the goal for the centenary of the People’s Republic of China in 2049, includes the country’s reunification.
3) 2021 was the year that China doubled its bet on the zero tolerance policy towards Covid-19. Beijing tightened the screws of control, with impressive results in fighting the pandemic.
The story is still being written, but the balance today is highly positive for the Chinese authorities, despite the problems of the beginning, recognized in small mouths between places, and the individual sacrifices where sporadic outbreaks arise.
Fighting Covid will likely be seen as a milestone in the Chinese’s increasing confidence in its political model, with significant impacts on the regime’s legitimacy — and this is highly underestimated outside China.
4) 2021 was the year that Beijing corrected economic trends, cutting back what it saw as excesses. With an eye on long-term gains, China appeared ready to make big immediate sacrifices. Companies across the country have lost more than $1 trillion in market value this year, affected by an astonishing regulatory spree.
Many of these measures are set against the backdrop of the idea of ​​common prosperity — a strong candidate for expression of the year in China. The interest in strengthening the middle class and reducing inequalities is nothing new. But few anticipated so many changes, so significant and in so many sectors at the same time.
When historians look back at the China of 2021, it will be obvious that, in the debate between growing the cake and sharing it better, Beijing this year has made its choice.
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