How the US and Britain assess the progress of the war in Ukraine

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Foggy landscape and skepticism in the US about what happens next in Ukraine – How important is the secret poll in Russia

In a foggy landscape moves the estimates of the American secret services about what will happen next in the war in Ukraine and about its intentions and plans Vladimir Putin.

US intelligence chief Avril Haines says fighting in Russia’s war in Ukraine is slowing down, which could be interpreted as success for Ukrainian forces and an optimistic sign for the future.

He emphasized, in his speech at Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, Californiathat Vladimir Putin may not have a full picture of the difficulties facing Russian soldiers in Ukraine.

As for the future, Haynes said, “frankly, we’re already seeing a sort of deceleration of the conflict” and expect both sides to look to renew, resupply and reconstitute their forces for a possible counteroffensive in the spring.

“But we actually have quite a bit of skepticism as to whether or not the Russians will be ready to do that,” he said. “And I think more optimistically about Ukrainians in this time frame,” he added.

The estimates of the British Ministry of Defence

On Sunday, the British Ministry of Defencein its latest intelligence assessment, pointed to new signs from an independent Russian media outlet that public support in Russia for the military campaign is “significantly falling.”

The Levada Center, Russia’s leading independent pollster, found that 53% of respondents supported peace talks, 41% favored continuing the fight and 6% were undecided. This poll of 1,600 people had a margin of error of no more than 3-4%.

The British Ministry of Defense noted that “despite efforts by the Russian authorities to impose pervasive control over the intelligence environment, the conflict has become increasingly palpable to many Russians since September’s ‘partial mobilization’.”

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