The event of Sergio Moro’s party affiliation, former Lava Jato judge and former justice minister of Jair Bolsonaro (no party), to Podemos, on November 10, in Brasília, confirms the recurring speculations about his electoral ambitions. In his fifty-minute speech during membership, the campaign tone was evident.
So far, Moro is the party’s candidate to occupy the famous third way in the 2022 presidential race. bargain in dispute. And the former judge would dispute a seat in the Senate for the state of Paraná.
Sergio Moro and the intention surveys of vote
Whether he will run for president or not, only time will tell. Recent data from polling intentions conducted by Quaest/Genial reveal that Moro occupies the third position in the scenario stimulated by the institute, with 8%.
A very modest percentage compared to the current 48% of former president Lula (PT) and 21% of Jair Bolsonaro. However, nothing negligible given the modest 6% of Ciro Gomes (PDT), for example, who comes from a presidential race in which he won 12% of the votes, in addition to this already having a campaign team led by a star marketer.
No doubt Moro’s affiliation lights a wake-up call in the pre-campaigns of the various third way candidates and, perhaps even more interestingly, in the core of Jair Bolsonaro. The participation of his former justice minister in the same electoral race will force Bolsonaro to duel with the figure who contributed to the conquest of a specific niche in his 2018 electorate, the supporters of Lava Jato.
It is true that both aim at a voter with an ideological profile on the right, thus, the search for conquering this electorate, whether on the customs or economic agenda, will force them to attack each other. In addition to disputing public, will also dispute party bases, the Republicans, party that has been part of Bolsonaro’s base since the beginning of his term is also in dialogue with Moro, the same effect will certainly happen with financiers and supporters in general.
Upon assuming the pre-candidate mission, Moro attacks the federal government and continues to seek public attention. The current move is to influence the debate about Auxílio Brasil, a program that will replace Bolsa Família. The former judge is in opposition to the federal government, dividing the space hitherto played by Lula and Ciro Gomes.
The latter is one of the big losers of Moro’s entry into the game, as it potentially makes it difficult for the center-right voters to enter.
What does social media say about the possible third way?
Social media data from the Social Listening A Strategy consultancy – surveyed from November 6th to 12th – reveal that Sergio Moro’s affiliation to Podemos generated 18,600 posts, reaching 10.8 million people and 973.4 thousand interactions on the networks. A pretty high number.
However, if we take social network targeting into account, we notice that 91% of the “noise” is concentrated on Twitter alone. The network mostly concentrates people with a high interest in politics, in addition to journalists, politicians and experts.
It is possible to speculate that the event did not have widespread repercussions on more popular networks for the common citizen, such as Facebook, for example, in which there were just over a thousand mentions of the former judge. Even lower number was identified on Instagram, only 155 mentions. Despite the mentions being concentrated on Twitter, the greatest reach found was on Facebook, reaching 7 million people and showing the platform’s adherence to the lives of Brazilians.
Another fact that draws attention is that almost 70% of the mentions are from men, and of these 60% are in the range of 26 to 40 years, putting a difficulty in conquering the female audience in question.
Still on the survey, it is also important to note that most of the citations were due to the criticism received by the candidate. However, in the current dynamics of the networks, we need to understand that the fact that the candidate has many mentions is already significant in terms of electoral capillarity, it is the famous “speak ill, but speak of me”, already so used by Bolsonaro in the past.
The list of cities in which posts were identified reveal that the subject was highly concentrated in four cities: São Paulo (1,520 mentions), Rio de Janeiro (816), Belo Horizonte (314) and Curitiba (282).
Thus, despite enjoying national knowledge, given his constant appearance during the media coverage of Lava Jato, Moro’s official entry into politics has not yet won the country. There is no doubt that Moro’s entry into the electoral game affects the electoral board, his movement in the networks has been proven right and there is already evidence of good party alignment between his public security agendas and his new party, Podemos, which has been taking over also for you these guidelines.
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