Russia launches major missile attack on Ukraine

Russia launched this Thursday morning (29) one of the biggest air strikes against Ukrainian cities since October, when it started to invest against the energy infrastructure of the country it invaded ten months ago.

The action reached the energy network in all regions of the country. The capital, Kiev, spent five hours with warning sirens on, probably a record in the war, and has 40% of its buildings in darkness. In the second largest city, Kharkiv (east), the power drop is 45%.

With winter temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, around zero degrees this Thursday in Ukraine, the effect on civilian daily life is enormous.

The barrage was preceded at some points by the deployment of kamikaze drones of Iranian origin, which, because they are slow, are easier to shoot down — to keep the anti-aircraft defenses busy. Then came the protagonists, cruise missiles launched from ships and planes, as well as anti-aircraft rocket versions of S-300 systems modified for inaccurate ground attack.

The numbers are inaccurate. The Air Force initially reported that there were two ships and 13 bombers involved, a figure that allowed presidential adviser Mikhailo Podoliak to speculate that 120 missiles were launched.

Afterwards, the military said there were 69 cruise models, but did not specify how many other types. And they reported that 54 of them had been shot down by anti-aircraft defenses. That’s a somewhat optimistic number, given scenes of destruction across the country, such as Odessa and Mikolaiv on the south coast.

At the same time, the images fuel Kiev’s campaign for more air defense systems from the West. So far, the bulk of its strength is older versions of the S-300, developed in the Soviet Union and also used by the Russians.

Gradually, some Western models were sent to the Ukrainians, such as the German Iris-T. Last week, the United States made the most glitzy pledge of advanced Patriot batteries, but there is much doubt as to how these difficult and expensive-to-operate models will be integrated and in what quantity, given that they are relatively scarce in Western inventories.

In a parallel development, an S-300 missile system landed in Belarusian territory during the attack. From the direction, it is likely that it was a mistake of the Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense, which did not leave victims or damage, but which politically stirs up the situation.

In recent weeks, President Vladimir Putin and the local dictator, his ally Aleksandr Lukachenko, have held meetings and conversations that are seen by many as a preparation for Belarus’s entry into the war – the country serves as a base for Russian forces in action.

Both Minsk and Moscow deny this, but warnings from the leadership in Kiev that an offensive is being planned for early this year while Ukraine grapples with the physical and psychological impact of the attacks on civilian life are in the air and make sense.

In any case, 2023 approaches with a bleak scenario in the war. Thursday’s attack appears to be a political takeaway from the Kremlin to the rhetorical skirmish the day before, when its spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, responded to President Volodomir Zelensky’s proposed peace plan.

The Ukrainian wants the full withdrawal of Russian forces, not only from the areas invaded this year, but also from the annexed Crimea and the east occupied by pro-Moscow rebels for nearly nine years, to talk. Peskov said that Kiev refuses to accept “realities”, citing the four regions absorbed by Putin in September, even without full control over them.

The stalemate continues as fighting intensifies around Bakhmut, in Donetsk (east), the sharpest point of the battlefront today.

And the air strikes continue, in what is seen as a form of pressure as the 320 men deployed by Putin to reinforce his invasion are being prepared for what Kiev sees as an offensive perhaps against the capital itself once the winter cold freezes over autumn mud and snow.