Games, lockdown and Xi cast the eyes of the world on China in 2022

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The Winter Olympics

When the bid to host the Winter Olympics began, China was still surfing the resounding success of the summer edition, in 2008. The Games marked a turning point, presenting the country as a great political and economic power. Despite the little snow in the capital, hosting the winter version seemed a no-brainer for the Communist Party leadership, and the IOC’s choice of Beijing in 2015 made the city the first to host both editions of the main sporting event in history. .

The world of 2022, however, proved to be much more challenging than that of 2008. Against China, there is a growing Western distrust led by the USA, accusations of violation of the human rights of ethnic minorities, erosion of individual freedoms and a pandemic that, although controlled, it would isolate its population from the rest of the globe for almost three years.

With the strict Covid-zero policy, Beijing hosted the Games without the sparkle and enthusiasm of 14 years ago. Athletes, journalists, technical commissions and officials of the Olympic committees were isolated in a bubble far from the capital, and the population was forbidden to follow the competitions. The closed borders also prevented the arrival of foreign fans – an unsuspecting person could easily walk through the streets of the capital in February without realizing that the city was hosting the Winter Olympics.

What mattered most: Olympic Games attract the attention of the entire planet, but for the host country, the degree of prestige can be measured by the number of heads of state who participated in the opening ceremony.

In the case of China, several Western leaders decided to boycott the event, and the only major president to visit the country was Russian Vladimir Putin. He met with Xi Jinping and used the meeting to deny rumors that he intended to invade Ukraine (something Russia would default on the 24th of the same month).

Lockdown in Shanghai

The initial plan was simple: with the proliferation of Covid cases in Shanghai in March, half of the city would be in lockdown for five days for mass testing and isolation of those infected, while the other half would go through the same process the following week. The volume of diagnoses changed the scenario, and the confinement reached the main Chinese metropolis, locking its more than 26 million inhabitants for almost two months.

Those who prepared to stay at home for less than a week found themselves isolated, without food, leading to a chaotic situation. On the social networks, videos of Chinese people rebelling against restrictionsshouting slogans against the quarantine, complaining of hunger and refusing to carry out daily PCR tests.

To contain the movement of people, the government relied on drones, robots and tens of thousands of police and volunteers, testing the patience of the population. Already at that time, Chinese complained about seemingly random rules (including sacrificing infected pets and sending children with coronavirus to unsanitary quarantine facilities) and pointed out the risks of the decentralized Covid-zero policy, with condominiums blocking emergency exits. to avoid shifts.

The lockdown came to an end with parties and fireworks in early June, marking the second-longest lockdown of a Chinese city since the initial outbreak in Wuhan.

What mattered most: The experience in Shanghai gave the first signs that the population was getting fed up with virus control policies. The numbers of infected and dead were low compared to the rest of the world, but there was a high economic and mental health cost to residents and migrant workers.

Shanghai was the scene of the first major outbreak of the omicron variant in the country and served as a warning to the Communist Party about the bankruptcy of Covid zero. The policy would last until the end of the year, causing the economy to bleed and leading to occasional tragedies that enraged society.

Xi Jinping secures third term

When Xi Jinping managed to eliminate the re-election limit from the Chinese constitution in 2018, he signaled in advance that he would break with the transition of power and remain as China’s leader. Thus, the following years served more to consolidate his power in the party and see who was loyal to him and thus worthy of promotion to the Politburo Standing Committee, the most important decision-making body of the bureaucratic hierarchy.

It came as no surprise, in October, when Xi walked into the Great Hall of the People alongside his men—Li Qiang, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang, Li Xi, Zhao Leji, and Wang Huning—to announce his reappointment, becoming the China’s most important politician since Mao Tse-tung. The list of officers occupying the other leadership positions, without any opposition figures, also denotes its strength.

Very few officials in the country’s history would be able to so deftly manage party structures, eliminating virtually all of the major factions that in past years dominated Chinese politics. Xi has achieved the feat and must reign supreme as long as he deems it necessary (or feasible).

What mattered most: Compared to previous compositions, the Politburo Standing Committee to ascend to the top of power alongside Xi is less experienced, skilled and diverse. Li Qiang, former secretary general of Shanghai and possibly the new Chinese premier starting next year, for example, has no national exposure, and Cai Qi has always been considered a lesser politician.

The fact that they were nominated for the third term, according to experts, is an unequivocal sign that, for Xi, loyalty has come to count for more than competence and merit.

The failure of Covid zero and the reopening of China

In November, the death of 10 people in a fire in Xinjiang, in southwest China, aroused the anger of the population and fueled protests of proportions not seen in the country since 1989.

Blockades at a building in Urumqi, the provincial capital, prevented residents from escaping and hampered the passage of equipment for firefighters to control the flames. Locked doors and metal plates had been placed to restrict the movement of people and prevent cases of Covid in the region.

In a few days, dozens of spontaneous demonstrations popped up in the country, mostly for the end of Covid zero and, in a few acts, Xi’s resignation. Those protesting held up blank sheets, a reference to the censorship to which the population is subjected.

Coincidence or not, China then eased restrictions, deactivating contact tracing platforms, ending the mandatory frequent tests, closing laboratories for sample collection and dismantling internal circulation barriers.

The result was an explosion of Covid cases that, at this moment, shakes the country’s meager hospital infrastructure. According to unofficial statistics, at least 278 million people have contracted the virus since early December in China, with around 5,000 deaths a day (the government denies both figures).

What mattered most: The Communist Party certainly understood that Covid zero was no longer economically and sanitarily sustainable, and the reopening would happen in the near future. The protests, however, accelerated the plans, and the abrupt end took many people by surprise. China has a low number of ICU beds, and the hospital system is not prepared for such a large flow of patients, most of whom are unvaccinated.

As we finish this edition of the newsletter, infectologists predict that the current wave of Covid in the country should only cool off at the end of March, putting a shadow over China’s behavior in the coming year.

Keep an eye on 2023

• Will the uncontrolled circulation of Covid in China lead to the emergence of new variants of the coronavirus?
• What will be the global impact with the reopening of the country’s borders and the return of Chinese tourism?
• How will the Communist Party (especially Xi) behave in the face of a weakened economy, compromised production chains and political pressure in 2023?