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Opinion – Tatiana Prazeres: 2022, the year that didn’t end for China

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In case you got lost in the news about China throughout the year, I faced the risky exercise of choosing the three highlights of 2022.

2022 was the year the Covid-zero policy took a sudden and radical reversal.

After three years of essentially closed borders and a brutal effort to eliminate the virus on Chinese soil, the population’s fatigue with strict lockdowns, mass testing and apps tracking movement is evident. Without needing to say much, protesters took to the streets with blank sheets of paper, in the so-called A4 protests.

Politics has changed 180 degrees, and now China is experiencing a tsunami of cases, with enormous social impact. At the same time, with the end of Covid zero, the prospects for GDP in 2023 are improving, even if the economy must deteriorate before it starts to improve.

2022 was the year Xi Jinping was re-elected for a third term.

Something to be expected, but still unprecedented since the end of the Mao era. In addition to ensuring Xi’s perpetuation in power, the Communist Party Congress signaled that, over the next five years, technological self-sufficiency and national security will be top priorities.

There are several candidates for a third highlight. This was the year in which energy security made Beijing invest heavily in coal, despite the pro-decarbonization discourse. It was the year in which a new trajectory of economic growth became evident, lower than in the past. It was the year that China completed construction of its own space station, emblematic of both the country’s ambitions and capabilities.

2022 was the year in which a new geopolitical reality was consolidated for China

This is my third highlight. The trend was already under way, but this year’s episodes confirm and accelerate the changing times.

To begin with, the China-Russia relationship reached a new level, in the midst of the Ukraine War. The West’s effort to isolate Russia had the effect of bringing it closer to China, which neither condemned nor supported the invasion. In the assessment of its foreign policy in 2022, Beijing highlighted that the “strategic partnership” with Moscow has become “more mature and resilient”.

In 2022, it is certain that the China-Russia relationship has increased the discomfort with Beijing in the US and among NATO members.

Furthermore, the relationship between China and the US has deteriorated a little further. The battle of the chips, which I wrote about here, deserves the title of expression of the year in the bilateral relationship. Faced with the Chinese vulnerability in this strategic area, the US redoubled, in 2022, the effort to deprive China of advanced semiconductors. It is true that the Chinese end the year even more convinced that containing their rise is Washington’s priority.

If that wasn’t enough, tensions around Taiwan grew and reached a new peak with the visit of congresswoman Nancy Pelosi to Taipei, perceived, in Beijing, as a great provocation. With an eye on China, Taiwan has just extended compulsory military service, and Japan has just doubled its military budget.

Two thousand and twenty-two, for China, is a year that has not ended. The end of Covid zero will have repercussions throughout 2023. Xi’s new mandate directly influences the country’s course for the next five years, perhaps longer. To top it off, the most challenging geopolitical context for Beijing has become the new normal. The balance of the year ends up serving as a preview of what will matter to the country in 2023.

Asiachinachinese economycommunist partycoronaviruscovid-19Democratic PartyJapanJoe BidenleafNancy PelosiTaiwanTokyoU.SUSAXi Jinping

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