A global “poker” has recently been set up around the impending conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Moscow has reportedly deployed troops on its border with Ukraine and a war is imminent. Many European countries seem to have set up a common “shield” of protection in favor of Kiev with many announcements, meetings and official reactions. All this at a time when Russian President Vladimir Putin does not seem to be raising a “fly on his sword.”
“Russia will have huge consequences if it invades Ukraine …”
Germany’s new Foreign Minister Annalena Bayerbok said on Tuesday that Russia would face “huge consequences” if it invaded Ukraine, following a telephone conversation with its Russian counterpart who stressed that “Kiev’s territorial integrity must not be violated.” Bayerbok called for an “open and honest” dialogue with Russia on the Ukraine crisis during talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, according to the German Foreign Ministry.
The phone call was the first public contact between Berlin and Moscow since Chancellor Olaf Soltz’s coalition government took office. “We want an honest and open dialogue,” the Bayerbok ministry wrote on Twitter after the call. “Ukraine’s territorial integrity must not be violated,” he said.
At a joint news conference in Stockholm, where she met with her Swedish and Norwegian counterparts, the German foreign minister said: “Any intervention in Ukraine’s sovereignty would have enormous consequences for the Russian regime – both economically and diplomatically.” The German Foreign Ministry also called for progress in the so-called Normandy talks on resolving the crisis in Ukraine.
“Sanctions if we have a war conflict”
In addition to Germany, Poland and Lithuania joined forces and announced their support for Ukraine last Monday, calling for tougher Western sanctions against Moscow amid a build-up of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border that has fueled feuds. invasion.
U.S. intelligence officials say Russia has mobilized a total of 70,000 troops near its border with Ukraine and is preparing for a possible invasion early next year. Moscow has denied any wrongdoing, but has demanded that NATO refuse to allow Ukraine and other former Soviet states to join.
Polish President Andrzej Duda and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Huta in the Carpathian Mountains in support of the Russian military. In a joint statement issued after the meeting, the three leaders “called on the international community to intensify sanctions against the Russian Federation for its continuing aggression against Ukraine and once again urged the Kremlin to de-escalate the situation by withdrawing its troops.” the Ukrainian border and temporarily occupied territories “.
Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014 and later backed an uprising in the east of the country. More than seven years of war have claimed the lives of more than 14,000 people and destroyed Ukraine’s “industrial heart”, Donbass.
“Our common duty is to prevent the threat posed by Russia and to defend Europe from Russia’s aggressive policies,” Zelensky told a news conference after talks between the three powerful men. The Ukrainian leader called for “strong precautionary measures, strong severe sanctions to rule out any thought of escalation.”
Last Friday, however, Moscow released draft security documents urging the United States and NATO to refuse to allow Ukraine and other former Soviet countries to join. Russian President Vladimir Putin called for security guarantees in last week’s video call with US President Joe Biden, who warned that Russia would face “grave consequences” if Moscow attacked its neighbor.
Ukraine has described the “Armageddon” group as FSB officers
The “world players” may have grown up on the diplomatic chessboard and the “war” of statements is unfolding with great intensity, but it seems that there are other aspects of the forthcoming conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which are based even on “shadows”. battle of cyber attacks.
The Ukrainian secret services (SSU), according to reports, claim to have identified the agents behind the production hacker group called “Armageddon”, claiming that they are Russian FSB officers.
In a brief statement, the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) revealed that the group was responsible for more than 5,000 attacks on the Ukrainian government and critical infrastructure assets. According to the same statement, the group is targeting “1,500 government computer systems that aim to steal sensitive security and defense information and block information systems, as well as attack power stations and heat and water systems.”
“The hacker group Armageddon is a special project of the FSB, which specifically targeted Ukraine,” the Ukrainian secret services said in a statement. “This ‘line of work’ is coordinated by the 18th FSB (Information Security Center) based in Moscow,” they said.
Five members of the hacker group are said to have been members of the Crimean secret services before surrendering to the Russian side after invading the Ukrainian peninsula in 2014. As a result, they are accused of treason and espionage, developing malware and hacking into computers. SSU said it was able to identify individuals despite using FSB tools to remain anonymous online. Although the individuals have not been arrested, SSU will hopefully send a signal to the FSB with this notice.
Russia-Ukraine crisis: where are Putin’s troops and what are his options?
According to the Guardian, Russia has deployed hundreds of tanks, self-propelled artillery and even short-range ballistic missiles from Siberia to the border range of Ukraine. US intelligence has said Russia could launch an offensive by the end of January with up to 100 regular battalions (BTGs), including about 175,000 troops. Current estimates suggest that Russia has a huge force in the border area that could “break” Ukrainian defense positions.
Russia’s rhetoric has become more belligerent. Vladimir Putin has called for legal guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO or host missile attack systems, concessions it is unlikely to receive. He also has some time. His troops can not be left out of the guard indefinitely. According to the same post, by the end of the winter he will probably have to launch an attack or withdraw his forces to something that would look like a retreat.
In 2014, Putin sent troops to annex Crimea, a predominantly Russian-speaking region of Ukraine. Russia has also instigated a separatist uprising in southeastern Ukraine, smuggling troops and weapons to provoke a conflict that eventually escalates into a full-scale war. A 2015 peace treaty led to a demarcation line and called on both sides to make concessions. Since then, low-level fighting has continued along the front, with both sides blaming each other for violating the agreement, which observers say is “close to collapse”.
Russia no longer wants to maintain the status quo and is looking for another way to exercise control over Ukraine. Many of the heavy weapons parked near Ukraine arrived in the spring, when Russia deployed about 110,000 troops with tanks and other heavy weapons near the border. Russia returned some but not all of its troops to the base in May after Putin secured a summit with US President Joe Biden.
One of the largest forces left in the region comes from the 41st Combined Arms Army, based in Novosibirsk almost 2,000 miles away. The equipment includes motorized infantry, main tanks, artillery and Iskander short-range ballistic missiles that include about six or seven BTGs, according to independent defense analyst Conrad Muzika. Fighter tanks, motorized infantry and rocket-propelled grenades from the 1st Moscow Guard Army based in the Moscow region have been transferred to the Pogonovo training area, according to the same analyst.
There are also units permanently deployed near Ukraine by the 8th and 20th Combined Arms Army. And Ukraine estimates that tens of thousands of troops are in the Russian-backed separatist territories of Donetsk and Luhansk.
What form could a Russian attack take?
According to the same publication, a map released by the Ukrainian military intelligence service in November showed the worst-case scenario: Russian forces crossed the Ukrainian border from the east and attacked annexed Crimea, launching an ambush on support for Russian troops in Transnistria and troops from Belarus. Some aspects of the plan, such as attacks from the east and through Crimea, already seem likely. Others, such as an attack from Belarus, appear to be affecting troops who have not yet arrived in the region.
Russia could claim sovereignty with a less extensive operation. The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service told the New York Times that “his nightmarish scenario included airstrikes and rocket attacks on ammunition depots and trenches that could leave the army incompetent, leaving front-line commanders to fight alone. They would fall if Russia launched a major offensive. “At that point, Russia could seek and turn Kiev into a disadvantaged peace deal.”
Other options that Vladimir Putin may be considering include sending a “peacekeeping force” or illegally deploying troops under the guise of separatist forces in Donetsk and Luhansk. It is characteristic, however, that the possible financial blow of any new battle would be huge as the US and its allies promise “significant and severe” sanctions in case of an attack.
The latter option may be the most likely: Russia is seeking concessions from the West in the negotiations, while keeping its troops along the border, always open to the option of threatening escalation.
What is the role of Nord Stream 2?
The completion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea gives both sides an economic weapon. The pipeline would allow Russia to send gas to Europe without passing through Ukraine, which means that Moscow could put pressure on Kiev without the risk that Ukraine would cut off gas supplies in retaliation. ».
However, the pipeline has not yet been commissioned, and many Western governments have repeatedly pointed out that an “invasion of Ukraine” could halt the project forever.
Πηγή: Associated Press, Reuters, Guardian.com,  infosecurity- magazine.com
Follow Skai.gr on Google News
and be the first to know all the news
.
