For Erdogan, whose decisions are now largely driven by opinion polls, dealing with Assad is key to success at the ballot box. Ronald Maynardous comments
Experts dealing with Turkey’s politics agree on one key point: for President Erdogan, domestic political parameters determine the foreign policy agenda. This is especially true of policy towards neighboring Syria, which once again dominates the election campaign more than any other foreign policy issue. From Turkey’s perspective, fundamental national interests are at stake in Syria.
First, there is the issue of the Syrian Kurds, who have established a successful autonomous administration north of the shared border, which Turkey sees as a continuation of the PKK. Then there are the nearly four million Syrian refugees in Anatolia, whom the majority of Turks would prefer to send back as soon as possible – and who have become an explosive campaign issue.
The indications are mounting that a radical shift is imminent in Turkey’s Syria policy. On Thursday, President Erdogan spoke once again – and more clearly than before – about the possibility of a summit meeting with Syrian dictator Assad. Such a meeting would be the culmination of a behind-the-scenes process that Moscow has been orchestrating for months to normalize relations between the warring states. Turkey was and remains the most important supporter of the Syrian opposition. Russia, on the other hand, is the main supporter of the Assad regime. That fact alone explains Putin’s insistence on a Syro-Turkish settlement.
Will the Kurds be the big losers again?
At the end of 2022, the defense ministers of Russia, Syria and Turkey met in Moscow. The agreed road map foresees a meeting of the foreign ministers of the three countries within a month. If all goes according to plan, a meeting of political leaders will seal the deal. A summit between Assad and Erdogan would be a political triumph for Putin – and a defeat for the Americans. A central role in international diplomacy on Syria is played by the United Arab Emirates, which has long advocated normalization of relations with Assad, believing it would limit Iran’s growing influence in Damascus.
The political basis of the looming Turkish-Syrian deal is a sui generis political transaction: in exchange for Ankara’s recognition of Assad as Syria’s leader and the normalization of bilateral relations at all levels, Damascus undertakes to dismantle the Kurdish structures in northern Syria and guarantee that they will play no role in future peace negotiations.
It remains to be seen how the US, the most important ally of the Syrian Kurds, will react to the current developments. So far, all that has been heard is that Washington rejects normalization of relations with Assad. Apparently, this suggestion did not impress Ankara. We have every reason to worry that if the plans of Putin, Erdogan and Assad are implemented, the Kurds will once again be the big losers in the power games of the great powers and their allies.
All sides emphasize that they want a peaceful solution in Syria
For Erdogan, whose policy decisions are increasingly driven by poll results, dealing with the Syrian dictator may be the key to success at the ballot box. Polls show that after the economic crisis, Syrian refugees are the main issue for Turkish voters.
The opposition has said it is determined to send the Syrians back as soon as possible. A political agreement providing for such repatriation, and in addition a treaty specifying the end of Kurdish militias in the border region, it would be God’s gift to Erdogan. The media controlled by him would celebrate the president, who fears losing power, as a great and successful general who solved the Kurdish and the migration problem at the same time – and without carrying out a dangerous military operation in northern Syria.
It is striking that all sides stress that they are interested in a peaceful solution for Syria. The personal histories of the three key players warrant caution: Assad, Erdogan and Putin have distinguished themselves as warmongers. It would amount to a miracle if Moscow’s initiative on Syria brought the troubled country closer to a peace acceptable to all sides.
Dr. Ronald Mainardus is a political analyst and commentator and Principal Researcher of ELIAMEP. In the mid-90s he was director of the Greek editorial office of Deutsche Welle.
DW – Ronald Maynardous
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With a wealth of experience honed over 4+ years in journalism, I bring a seasoned voice to the world of news. Currently, I work as a freelance writer and editor, always seeking new opportunities to tell compelling stories in the field of world news.
