There are increasing indications of a new generalized Russian attack on Ukraine, Ukrainian officials and Russian experts say
Moscow is preparing for a new general attack against Ukraine and will therefore proceed with new mobilization, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently warned in an evening video message.
Just before the New Year, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reshnikov sent a message to Russians warning them that the Kremlin was preparing for new conscription, but also that it intended to impose martial law to prevent men from leaving Russia.
Officially, the partial mobilization in Russia that started on September 21, 2022 has not yet been completed. This will only happen with the signing of a decree by President Vladimir Putin, which has not happened to date. Sergei Krivenko of the Russian human rights group Citizens, Army, Justice, which is labeled a “foreign agent” by Russian civil services, says that in many parts of Russia young men are still receiving conscription documents today.
Recruitment in late January or February
Krivenko recalls President Putin’s decree from August 2022, which concerns the strengthening of the Russian armed forces to over 1.15 million soldiers: “Many then put the total number of soldiers at about 800,000: conscripts, professional soldiers, officers and soldiers in the field’. According to Sergey Krivenko, “as early as December 2022, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the number of soldiers in Russia will increase to 1.5 million.” The Russian expert estimates: “This is the first step of a new mobilization at the end of January or February.”
Military expert Yan Matveyev told DW in a similar vein: “First of all, there are no clear indications that the state has stopped the mobilization process. It keeps all options open. Second, there is a practical reason: Russian soldiers are either dying or being injured on the front lines. This is especially true for conscripts because they are not properly prepared. So they should be replaced.” According to the expert, the third reason why a new wave of mobilization should be expected is that President Putin has no intention of ending the war: “It will continue as long as no one stops it. It is therefore crucial for the Russians to build up reserves for the future.”
Russian officials deny…
Senior Russian officials, however, deny that there are any government plans for a new mobilization: “I don’t see the need to order a new phase of mobilization in the next six months,” Andrei Gurulyev, a member of the Russian Duma’s Defense Committee, told the website in an interview. chita.ru. The conditions for such a move are not met. Even those who were drafted earlier into the armed forces, not all have been sent into battle. At the same time our industry should be able to shoulder a new recruitment. In my opinion, it is ineffective to take this step within the next six months”
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