Chinese growth slowed to 3% in 2022

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Economists polled by Agence France-Presse predicted an even greater slowdown in growth (+2.7%).

Chinese authorities announced today that the country’s economy will grow at 3% of GDP in 2022, one of the lowest levels announced by Beijing in 40 years, as activity has been hit by the novel coronavirus pandemic. coronavirus and the real estate crisis.

The Chinese government had targeted growth of 5.5%, a pace already well below the performance of 2021, when the Asian giant’s GDP grew by more than 8%.

In the fourth quarter, growth stabilized at 3.9 percent, the same level as in the third, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said.

Although official data is generally treated with caution, as the issue is by definition of huge political importance, numbers on the trajectory of China’s gross national product (GDP) are closely scrutinized given the country’s weight in the global economy.

China’s economic growth last year was the lowest since the contraction it experienced in 1976 (–1.6%) and the slowdown in 2020, the first year of the pandemic (+2.3%).

Economists polled by Agence France-Presse predicted an even greater slowdown in growth (+2.7%).

The economy of the Asian giant was hit by the pandemic and the strict measures to prevent its spread, the so-called “zero COVID” policy, which for almost the whole of 2022 curbed activity and consumption.

The costly public health policy, which relied on the imposition of lockdowns and massive mandatory tests to allow access to public spaces, often caused factory and business closures, curfews and disruptions to supply chains.

Partly because of the desperation of the population, this policy was abandoned in December. But the economy is struggling to recover, precisely because of the consequent explosion of new coronavirus cases.

In December, retail sales, a key indicator of household spending, fell for the third consecutive quarter (-1.8% year-on-year), after falling in November (-5.9%).

Industrial production slowed last month (+1.3% year-on-year), after rising 2.2% in November.

As for the official unemployment rate, it fell slightly in December (5.5%) compared to November (5.7%). The index is of great concern to Beijing — it wants to stay low to avoid social tensions.

However, it does not give a complete picture of the situation, as it only concerns the residents of Chinese cities. It therefore does not include the millions of internal migrants, workers particularly vulnerable to economic slowdowns.

Their situation has been further aggravated by the real estate crisis, a sector which together with construction accounts for more than a quarter of China’s GDP and provides work for workers without particularly formal qualifications.

RES-EMP

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