This will not be an easy year for Mexico, given the complex international situation and the political dynamics for President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s party to reach a consensus in order to elect the candidate to succeed him. The world is unsettled by the wave of bad news ranging from war in Ukraine to rising global inflation; from the energy crisis to the collapse of global security systems; from the trade showdown between the western world and China to supply chain pressures; from the deterioration of democracy to the rise of populism; from social protest to the weakening of electoral systems.
There are no few challenges for Mexico, and that adds up to a hard and deadly winter.
In this context, and as if that were not enough, political leaders, who must sit down to talk and define stabilization strategies, will have to face the internal dynamics of a society called upon to vote in the “biggest and most complex disputed elections” in national history, which will be held in the summer of 2024.
These will be your main challenges.
the pandemic. Although the effects of the sixth wave have not become a serious public health problem and the reintroduction of certain social control measures, such as confinement or healthy distance, have not been considered, the Covid-19 pandemic is present as a threat. by the behavior of the virus among the Chinese population. It’s a matter of time before we know what its impact will be in Mexico. Meanwhile, national statistics show an increase in infections in recent weeks and, as in previous years, the end of year festivities have encouraged the multiplication of cases.
the inflation The inflationary process is under way in the world; in Mexico it was around 8% in 2022. However, this is not what retail market prices reflect, not even for products that come from the Mexican countryside or seas. Despite this, President López Obrador tried to exorcise the increase, pointing out “that there will be no January slope”, as if the behavior of the local economy was decided in the National Palace and was not part of the international dynamic.
Organized crime violence. Even when public safety is in the hands of the military, the numbers remain very high. In the period between 2018 and September 2022 there were 112,250 homicides, according to what we are told, and in this equation the deaths in 2022 represent a reduction of 10.3% in relation to 2021. But there is an alarming data: the number of people missing and not located in this period exceeds 30 thousand. In 2022 alone, it is estimated that there were almost 11,000, and if we consider the low number of people located, we could conclude that most of them are buried in clandestine pits.
the energy crisis The increase in fuel prices is undoubtedly an inflationary element of the first order. The problem is that fuel prices are international, except when they are subsidized, which means a reallocation of public spending. That is, some economic or social sector loses with the transfer of money from one basket to another. This variable will be present in 2023, taking into account the 2024 presidential elections, which, for political reasons, are accompanied by a relative normalization of the economy. However, the federal budget includes, for 2023, an increase in the price of gasoline and its derivatives.
The selection of the official presidential candidate The presidential succession with its paraphernalia of anticipated campaigns will be present throughout this year. At the end of 2022, there was a strong smear campaign against the National Electoral Institute, with a series of unconstitutional reforms to reduce its competences, structure and budget, and with aspiring officials circumventing the rules of the game. The democratic construction of four decades is in question.
The 2022 local elections in the states of Mexico and Coahuila are a laboratory for what will happen in 2024. There is the precedent of the 2021 elections, when organized crime intervened by supporting and withdrawing candidates in several states. This had repercussions on the political representation favorable to the Morena party in 22 of the 32 states of the federation, while the divided opposition failed to present itself as a credible alternative government.
The main projects of the Obrador government The so-called government of the Fourth Transformation has three major projects that have been the subject of constitutional and media controversy due to their economic and environmental impact: the Santa Lucia airport, in Mexico City, the Dos Bocas refinery, in Tabasco, and the Maia train, in the southeast region. .
After interrupting the construction of the airport that was in progress in Texcoco, which represented and represents a multimillion dollar loss for public finances, the airport, which was promoted by the president, was inaugurated last summer. This work, however, is practically in disuse and the president López Obrador seeks, at the last minute, to design it with the landing of the planes that will bring Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau when they arrive at the North American Summit.
The refinery, which goes against the logic of the future of the world energy market, committed to clean energy, is in the same situation. Although it was inaugurated, at the end of 2022 it had not produced a liter of gasoline, although before the end of the year the president announced that by 2023 it would be producing 170,000 barrels a day and that, in this way, the country would advance towards so-called energy sovereignty.
At the same time, there is the construction of railroads in the jungle of southeastern Mexico, which has been questioned by environmental groups for the damage they cause to the habitat of several species. In fact, the Zapatista National Liberation Army (EZLN) has spoken out against the project and is threatening to fight it.
Finally, political polarization makes it more difficult to build agreements to maintain public policies in the long term, which means an ingredient of permanent instability in a complicated scenario for governance.
With a wealth of experience honed over 4+ years in journalism, I bring a seasoned voice to the world of news. Currently, I work as a freelance writer and editor, always seeking new opportunities to tell compelling stories in the field of world news.
