Even the 160,000-240,000 per day may reach new coronavirus cases in March, due to the “Omicron” variant, according to expert estimates, as reported by Der Spiegel magazine. “Stronger than all the previous ones” estimates an expert scientist that it will be the next wave.
The scientists, who calculated various models and based the results on the Committee of Experts set up by the Chancellery, predict as many as 8,000 patients in Intensive Care Units with complications due to Covid-19. This, however, clarifies, is the worst case scenario. But even if the “Omicron” variant eventually turns out to be “relatively mild” – the best, but rather unlikely, it is pointed out – hospitals will be able to barely cope.
As the head of the team of scientists of the “Max Planck” Institute, Viola Prisman, notes, both the measures taken and will be taken in the future and the behavior of the citizens will play an important role, who, as he mentioned, become more careful when cases are increasing. “Even with the most optimistic scenario, we can not continue ‘as it is,'” she said.
In the same vein, Anita Sebel, a modeling specialist and head of the Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Mathematics, expects a similar development and is concerned that the measures taken are not enough. “It is realistic that we will still have very high cases in early January,” he told the RND Network, adding that the government would then have to “step on the emergency brake” to avoid overburdening the health system. “This wave will be stronger than anything we have had so far, because the Omicron is spreading much faster than other variants,” said Ms. Sebel, but added that the exact peak of the Omicron was still difficult to predict. In terms of deaths, he expects more in Germany than have been recorded so far in South Africa, and explains that the first data from Britain show that hospital admissions are about the same as in the “Delta” variant.
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