The many and open fronts of Recep Tayyip Erdogan

By Athena Papakosta

It took two 24 hours for the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to break his silence and express his anger over Saturday’s demonstration outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm, where a far-right extremist burned the Koran.

Erdogan was clear. Sweden should not expect any support from Turkey for joining NATO. “If they like members of terrorist groups and enemies of Islam so much, we advise them to entrust the defense of their country to them as well,” he stressed.

Ankara’s veto on the admission of Sweden and Finland to the Alliance had never left the table. On the contrary, this blackmail of the Turkish president has been going on for months. In more detail, according to The Economist, the troubled ally of the West is bargaining its power in the Alliance at a time when the war in Ukraine has given it, according to many analysts, the opportunity to play a double board.

Erdogan’s statements that Sweden “should not wait” for Turkey’s support for NATO membership come while Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristerson has criticized the burning of the Koran outside the Turkish Embassy in the Swedish capital, calling this act “deeply disrespectful” and the country’s foreign minister, Tobias Billström, has invited Ankara to continue diplomatic contacts.

But the Sultan’s “wait” to the Alliance is being used by the Turkish president as a lever of pressure on the United States who do not want to see the unity of the West disrupted with the war in Ukraine in full swing. At the same time, it is also used for internal consumption as Turkey prepares for a double election contest – a fatigue test for its president.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ruled for over 20 years. He chooses May 14 as the date for holding the presidential and parliamentary elections in his country. This date is not accidental.

He himself has recently referred again and again to the politician Adnan Menderes, who won (for the first time) the historic elections of May 14, 1950 when he succeeded in ousting the Republican People’s Party (CHP) that was already ruling over since two decades. Menderes ruled for ten years before being overthrown by a military coup. He went through a trial and was sentenced to the death penalty.

Today, the 68-year-old Turkish president is hoping for a new presidential term. But at home, economic reality is catching up with him. So are the many open fronts at the international level.

Turkey’s national currency continues to lose value, Turkish inflation is one of the highest in the world and the Turkish president’s handouts are about to dry up with no new ones to give.

They say defense is the best offense. And this is exactly how the Turkish president plays on the international chessboard. Washington is pressuring him for Sweden and Finland to join NATO and he is pulling as long as he can, or at least he will continue to pull until the day of the elections in his country.

His Western allies are exercising patience and the British Economist magazine scolds them, calling them to take action and criticize the “bully who imposes his cruelty to satisfy his interests inside and outside Turkey”.

Erdogan’s Turkey is indeed a flawed democracy but also an important ally of the West whom no one would like to see angered since then the risk of e.g. escalating provocations against Greece would further increase.

For now, doomsday for both the Turkish president himself and Turkey is at least 100 days away. The six-party opposition alliance has a marginal lead in the polls. However, she has not yet chosen a candidate and this makes her weakened.

Erdogan is preparing to use his power and dissolve the Turkish parliament on March 10. From this date onwards, there will be only 60 days left for the double polls in the country and, yes, the pre-election climate in Turkey is expected to be explosive.

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