US military presence turns the South China Sea into a powder keg

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Passing through the Philippines this week, the US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, announced this Thursday (2) the successful conclusion of negotiations with Manila so that the Americans can use four more military bases in the country.

It is an expansion of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).

The Pentagon diplomatically described the pact as an opportunity to “enable faster response to humanitarian and climate disasters in the Philippines and a response to shared challenges.”

In practice, the agreement will allow the Americans an important regional strategic advantage: deterring Chinese expansion in the South China Sea.

• The maritime stretch is claimed by Beijing, but is technically in the exploitable zones of other neighbors in the region, such as Vietnam, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and, of course, the Philippines.

• The Indo-Pacific serves as a valuable freight corridor and carries an estimated $3 trillion (R$15 trillion) worth of goods annually.

The Pentagon did not say where the bases involved in the deal are located. The American press speculates that it is in Luzon, an island in the north of the country and close to Taiwan.

If you consider the US military presence in Japan, South Korea and Australia, the new posts will help to contain Chinese expansion there.

Why it matters: While bringing some relief to countries that feel harassed by Beijing, the growing American military presence in the South China Sea makes the region a powder keg. Estrangements between the US and Chinese military have been common.

In January 2022, for example, the Chinese said they had pursued an American vessel that would have invaded an area claimed by Beijing. Washington said its vessels were merely granting passage “in international waters” near the Paracel Islands.

Another significant point in this announcement is the proximity of the new Taiwan bases, which could be a strategic advantage in case the Americans decide to intervene militarily in an eventual attempt to invade the island by the Chinese.

what also matters

Chinese scientists have announced success in their attempt to create three “super cows” through genetic manipulation. The animals are the result of cloning carried out by researchers at the Northwest University of Agricultural and Forestry Science and Technology, based in Ningxia.

According to the researchers, the calves were born on the 23rd and, when they reach adulthood, they will be able to produce 18 tons of milk per year, almost twice as much as a common cow.

To arrive at the ideal genetic combination, 120 cloned embryos of the Holstein Friesian breed, originally from Holland, were used. If the process continues to prove viable, the project aims to produce a herd of 1,000 super cows within three years, helping to overcome China’s dependence on dairy cows. Currently, 70% of animals of this type need to be imported.

More than 23,000 deaths were avoided in China in 2021 thanks to policies to improve heating systems. The number was revealed by a study by the Universities of Birmingham and Nankai.

It is still very common to burn coal to heat houses in the Chinese winter. The country, however, has been investing in alternative technologies, introducing a broad clean heating program that has renovated the infrastructure of homes in Beijing, Tianjin and 26 other neighboring cities.

The policy has already started to bear fruit, and studies indicate a significant drop in premature deaths —mainly from lung cancer—caused by pollution from coal burning: from 169,000 in 2015 to 145,400 in 2021.

The calculation was based on 2015 levels for PM2.5 particles —very fine and responsible for the cloudy appearance of polluted air. According to the South China Morning Post newspaper, the amount of these particles in suspension in the analyzed period fell by 41% in areas where the program was in force.

Keep an eye

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is due to visit China later this year to discuss the state of relations between the countries, the South China Morning Post reported.

According to sources heard by the newspaper, work for the meeting between the premier and Xi Jinping should start next week, with a virtual meeting between the minister of Commerce, Don Farrell, and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Wentao.

The two are expected to discuss diplomatic ways out of retaliatory embargoes imposed by Beijing on Australian products over the past three years. Both countries also face an imbroglio in the export of Chinese silicon, the target of anti-dumping measures by Australia since 2020.

why does it matter: During Liberal Scott Morrison’s tenure as prime minister, Australia took a very assertive stance against China, which decided to double down. Over the past three years, sanctions by Beijing on Australian products have become commonplace, almost always due to political retaliation – Morrison demanded an investigation to determine the Chinese government’s responsibility for the spread of Covid, for example.

The first Labor to hold the country’s top job in nearly a decade, Albanese has been trying to cool the heat and restore some normalcy to relations.

to go deep

• On Sunday morning (5), the Being Tao Association holds a café with various Chinese cultural activities such as a wheel of knowledge, calligraphy workshops and tai chi practices. The event takes place in the North Wing of Brasilia. Details here. (free, in portuguese)

• On the next 11th and 12th, sinologist Melissa Cambuhy will teach the online course “Planning, Market and National Development: The Case of China”. The workload is four hours and information on how to apply is here. (paid, in Portuguese).