Europeans announce 100 tanks to Ukraine, and Russia talks of unpredictable escalation

Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark announced on Tuesday (7) that they will send at least 100 more Leopard-1 tanks to Ukraine in the coming months, in yet another attempt to contain Russian advances in the east of the country in the month in which the war completes one. year.

The Leopard-1 models are older than the 14 Leopard-2 tanks announced by Germany on the 25th and need repairs and preparation to be used in the field by the Ukrainian Army.

“It’s a tested tank,” said Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren. “They are being prepared and will be useful for the Ukrainians and better than some Russian tanks.”

Two weeks ago, in addition to the German Leopard-2 tanks and Berlin’s authorization for other countries to re-export armored vehicles, the US also stated that it would send 31 M1 Abrams model tanks. Recurring demand from Kiev, which asked for at least 300 tanks, vehicles can reverse the tide of conflict, recently more prone to the Russian side.

The previously announced number would not have such a significant impact, according to experts, who point to the figure of 100 to 300 well equipped and managed Leopard-2 armored vehicles as necessary for a concrete change. The recently announced shipment of older Leopard-1s also opens up doubts, therefore, about the effectiveness of the aid.

The trio of countries responsible for the initiative also said they would provide Ukraine with training, logistical support, parts and ammunition to operate the machines. The model, being old —it has a 105 mm caliber cannon, compared to the 120 mm of the Leopard-2— and operated by only a few countries, requires the purchase of projectiles for use in a shorter period of time, a dilemma that in a way involves Brazil.

In January, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) denied Germany’s request to supply the necessary ammunition to Kiev. Brazil is one of the few countries that still operates Leopard-1 models, in addition to Chile, Greece and Turkey – the last two are members of NATO, the western military alliance.

The request denied by the PT was made before Berlin allocated the Leopard-2 to the Ukrainians and showed that at least the hypothesis of sending the older tanks was already made by the Germans, who spent the first year of the conflict hesitant in getting so explicitly involved in the war compared to other members of NATO and the European Union.

There is still no information about the date on which the Leopard-1 announced this Tuesday will be delivered or how the agreement with the German companies producing the armored vehicles will be made. It is also not known the exact number of tanks that will be made available and how the costs will be divided between countries and manufacturers.

Earlier on Tuesday, German tank maker Rheinmetall indicated that between 20 and 25 tanks would be shipped later this year, and the remaining 88 Leopard-1s the company owns next year.

“We have the number of tanks, but they need to be refurbished for battle and equipped, so we don’t know yet exactly how many will be sent, but it’s a big number to repel the Russian invasion this spring,” said German Finance Minister Robert Habeck. after meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Also on Tuesday, Russia said that its incursions in the east of the country, particularly in the areas of the cities of Bakhmut and Vuhledar, in Donbass, were progressing “successfully”. Russian Defense Minister Serguei Choigu has warned Kiev’s allies that increased Western aid could lead to an “unpredictable” level of escalation in the conflict.

The supply of armored vehicles marked a change of course for Ukraine’s western allies, which until then had committed only to equipment such as Javelin portable anti-tank weapons and Patriot anti-aircraft defense systems, in the case of the Americans.

Before that, Washington argued that it would be counterproductive to send Abrams vehicles to the Ukrainians because they are armored vehicles that require complex training and consume a lot of fuel.

The announcement of the Leopard-1 took place on the same day that the German Minister of Defense, Boris Pistorius, made a surprise visit to the capital of the invaded country, where he met with President Volodymir Zelenskiy and his Ukrainian counterpart, Oleksii Reznikov.

Reznikov published a photo with Pistorius holding a replica of a tank and wrote that the Leopard-2 models previously announced by the Germans have already arrived in Kiev. On Sunday (5), Ukraine announced that it would change the head of Defense, replacing Reznikov with Kirirlo Budanov, head of military intelligence, although it did not say when this would happen or what position the current minister would take.