Battles for Bahamut: Why is so much blood spilled?

Nearly 200,000 soldiers have fallen on the Ukrainian battlefield or been wounded, according to US estimates. But Moscow has suffered the heaviest losses in the area around Bakhmut north of Donetsk, the New York Times reported last week. Of course, all this cannot be confirmed by independent sources, but nevertheless the number would mean a drastic increase in Russian losses. Only at the beginning of November, the American general Mark Miley put the number of Russian dead and wounded at 100,000, so within 3 months the losses, if we rely on these data, have tripled. But how is this explained? According to military experts, it is primarily due to the Russian tactics in the battle for Bahamut.

Since ammunition is in short supply, Moscow relies more on infantry for firepower. Without counting casualties, fighters of the notorious Wagner group, recruited in prisons, attack Ukrainian positions in small groups and in waves. According to the civil rights organization “Closed Russia” only 10,000 of the total of 50,000 recruited prisoners are still at the front, the rest were killed, wounded, captured or deserted.

Russian “attrition tactics”

The head of the group himself, Yevgeny Prigozhin, chosen by Putin, indirectly confirmed the heavy losses. “The Battle of Stalingrad in World War II was nothing in front of Solentar,” said the so-called “Putin’s cook” recently. Perhaps the comparison served his own narcissism, especially since this small town north of Bahamut fell into the hands of the Russians last January. But still his words give an idea of ​​how fierce the fighting was there. At the same time, however, from a strategic point of view, efforts to bring down Bahamut are not justified. Of the 70,000 residents who lived there before the war, only 8,000 remain according to mayor Oleksii Reva. The industry, as well as the entire infrastructure, have been completely destroyed by the fighting. By autumn Moscow dreamed of capturing Bakhmut as a kind of move to encircle the settlements between Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. In the north, in the city of Izium belonging to the Kharkov region, Russian forces were ready, but after the Ukrainian attack on Kharkov, Moscow was forced to hastily withdraw from Izium and the objective was canceled.

Nevertheless, Russia insists on its choice to continue fighting to capture the Bakhmut region, which is controlled by Kyiv, apparently for lack of alternatives. From a strategic point of view, attacks from the south of Zaporizhia or from the north from Belarus would make more sense, but there are no forces and sufficient logistics, as an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War in Washington observes. In fact, supplying such a large army in southern Ukraine is hampered by the fact that supplies of ammunition, equipment and spare parts must go through the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which was known to have been annexed in 2014. There are two sticking points here which is congested when crossing the Russian hinterland via the Crimean bridge and then exiting Crimea via the Perekop Isthmus. At the same time, attempts to advance on Kyiv from the north have already failed once in the first days of the war. In Donbas, on the other hand, the supplies are quite good and thus Moscow can impose on Kyiv its favorite “attrition tactics”.

The war has not yet been decided

Another reason Moscow insists on attacking Bakhmut is the symbolic importance the city has acquired for Moscow after months of fighting. Already the fall of the neighboring smaller town of Solentar, in the absence of news of successes on the Russian front, has led to something of a “jurisdiction” dispute between the Ministry of Defense and Wagner’s mercenaries over who gets the bragging rights. According to Moscow, the capture of Bakhmut is the key to the capture of Donbas, one of President Putin’s declared war goals. But for the Ukrainian side, Bakhmut also has a high symbolic value. President Zelensky has declared it the “Fortress of Bakhmut”. “No one will leave Bakhmut, we will fight as long as we can,” he said just last Friday. From a military point of view, holding the city has been meaningless for some time now. Daily Ukrainian losses are estimated at 100 dead and wounded. The media write that Washington has already advised Kyiv to withdraw. But apparently no order has been given so far. After the withdrawal of the U.K. of Ukrainian forces from Lisitsansk, in the Luhansk region last July, the new defensive line between Siversk and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region has held.

After the surrender of Soledar last January, the next point in this line will probably now be abandoned with Bahamut. For the Russian army this would simultaneously open the road to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. But it would not be a lightning strike. More likely, the Ukrainian units would retreat into new defensive positions, and so the slow, bloody crushing of the Ukrainian army by the Russians could continue a few kilometers further west. So the war is far from decided. The fact that, incidentally, amid this difficult juncture, Defense Minister Oleksii Reshnikov is being weakened by corruption scandals and rumors of his resignation or removal, is an annoying side theater of war for Kyiv. Reshnikov’s negotiating skills are credited, for example, with the recent significant development of vehicle and tank deliveries from Western partners. Reshnikov, however, does not interfere in operational decisions. The army’s operations are planned by the general staff, which is still headed by Valery Salusny.

DW: Andre Salin, Andreas Stein/ Irini Anastasopoulou

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