Earthquakes in Turkey and Syria raise fears of even more authoritarian turn

As if the devastation of cities and the death of thousands of people were not enough, the earthquake in Turkey and Syria triggered the alert for the possibility of the implementation of authoritarian measures in both countries.

In Ankara, the response to the catastrophe is likely to influence President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s performance in elections scheduled for May 14. In recent years, he has lost popular support, in part due to the impacts of the economic crisis in the country, with a high cost of living aggravated by the War in Ukraine and the Covid pandemic. In October, the annual inflation rate reached 85.5%, the highest rate in 25 years.

Voting intention polls indicate that the dispute will be close, in the biggest test for the Turkish president in two decades in charge of the country – although he has not yet officially announced his candidacy, he has been signaling his intention to run for a new term.

Now, the catastrophe that occurred in the early hours of Monday (6th) has increased the pressure on Erdogan. The government has become the target of criticism for its slow response to the aftermath of the earthquake that has already left more than 15,000 people dead, triggering anger and frustration in part of the population. Turkish authorities, in turn, attribute the delays in rescue actions in regions close to Syria to winter storms that impede road traffic and the delivery of food and humanitarian aid.

“The first doubt is whether the elections will take place on May 14. It will not be a surprise if the government extends the state of emergency and suspends the election”, says Imdat Oner, political analyst at the Jack D. Gordon Institute, linked to the International University from Florida, and a former Turkish diplomat.

Shortly after the tragedy, Erdogan declared a state of emergency for three months in the ten provinces hit by the quake. In announcing the measure, he criticized opponents who, according to him, try to pit people against each other in the midst of chaos through “false and distorted news”.

The message increases the fear of authoritarian decisions and siege of the opposition. The Turkish Karabekir Akkoyunlu, professor of politics and international studies at the School of Oriental and African Studies, which is part of the University of London, has an assessment similar to Oner’s, that Turkey can embark on a more autocratic path in the midst of the electoral period .

In the face of what he calls polarizing speeches, he says that Erdogan’s reaction after an eventual defeat in the May election is unpredictable. Akkoyunlu recalls that the Turkish leader took office as prime minister in 2003, almost four years after a 7.6 magnitude earthquake that killed more than 17,000 people.

At the time, the tragedy inspired a desire for change in the country, and the parties in power were swept away from the political system, which benefited Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). Now, according to Akkoyunlu, the president will do everything to avoid comparisons between the two moments.

“People who make this kind of criticism are already being legally threatened”, says the professor, citing the case of Özgün Emre Koç, a political scientist detained to provide clarification after criticizing the government’s response to the earthquakes. According to the Turkish press, Koç was charged with inciting hatred and hostility. “When there is a popular movement against the government and a perception of loss of control, this type of coercive method becomes more evident.”

In 20 years in power, Erdogan is accused by critics and opponents of eroding the independence of the judiciary, eroding press freedom and weakening respect for human rights in the country.

In 2017, the Turkish leader amended the constitution to change the system of government from parliamentary to presidential. According to analysts, the measure opened up the prerogative for Erdogan to issue decrees, regulate ministries and remove civil servants without needing parliamentary approval.

In the 2019 elections, it determined the recount of votes after the ruling party’s candidate lost the municipal race in Istanbul. Although the result was maintained, the episode, according to analysts, undermined the credibility of the Turkish electoral system.

Considered polarizing, Erdogan remains supported by a significant portion of the Turkish population, especially the more conservative Muslim wing. In December, a survey by the Turkish institute Metropoll showed that 45.2% of the population approved of his government, against 52.1% who disapproved.

The Syrian dictator, Bashar al-Assad, has been living with the civil war that has devastated the country for 12 years. In the fight against rebel groups, he received support from Russia and Iran. But, in recent months, it has experienced isolation due to other priorities of the allies: the War in Ukraine, for Moscow, and the wave of protests in Tehran triggered by the death of the young Kurd Mahsa Amini, arrested by the moral police for allegedly disrespecting the rules of use of the Islamic headscarf.

For Oner, from the Jack D. Gordon Institute, the tragedy caused by the earthquake should bring Vladimir Putin and Assad closer together, and the Syrian dictator should use the context of receiving humanitarian aid as an instrument to press for an end to the sanctions imposed by Western countries due to the civil war.

This week, relief efforts in Syria have been a source of tension. Although he said that the aid will be destined to “all Syrians, throughout the territory”, the country’s ambassador to the UN, Bassam Sabbagh, imposed the condition that the distribution of humanitarian aid be made by the regime.

The issue is that provinces like Idlib, a stronghold in the north of the country controlled by rebels and jihadists, do not maintain bridges with Damascus. Almost all aid arriving in the area today comes from Turkey and passes through Bab al Hawa, an access point created following a United Nations resolution — and which for both Damascus and Moscow represents a violation of Syrian sovereignty.

The earthquake still moves the political chess in the Middle East. Among the countries that have expressed a desire to help Syria is Israel, a historic rival. Karina Calandrin, project coordinator at the Brazil-Israel Institute, points out that the initiative could be what is called a smokescreen, to show the international community “the human side” of Binyamin Netanyahu’s government, which leads the right-wing coalition of the country’s history, the target of criticism for polemics carried out by extremist ministers.

“Syria has already invaded Israel three times, and Israel annexed part of the Syrian territory, the Golan Heights. And Damascus denied having asked for the aid promised by Israel”, ponders Calandrin.