Dealing with the earthquake is a “fight for survival” for Erdogan – He does not want to suffer the fate of Ecevit

“Political struggle for survival” is invited to give Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as he does not want the crisis caused by the deadly 7.8 magnitude earthquake that shook southern Turkey last Monday to “explode in his hands”.

The earthquake intensifies the pressure on the Turkish president, just three months before the presidential and parliamentary elections, which even before the disaster predicted a difficult test for him.

Faced with growing criticism of the authorities’ slow response and lack of organization, the Turkish president, in power since 2003, visited the affected areas on Wednesday and admitted his mistakes.

“Of course, there were gaps, it is impossible to be prepared for such a disaster,” he said characteristically from the province of Hatay, near the Syrian border.

According to the latest count the victims in Turkey and Syria reached 16,035. In Turkey the dead amount to 12,873 and in Syria to 3,162.

But even before the earth began to shake on Monday, the ground under Erdogan’s feet it was already collapsing, as he faces many crises ahead of the May 14 election. His unorthodox approach to the economy caused inflation to soar, causing consumer prices to rise by 85% last year.

Sensing the danger, the Turkish president went on the counterattack. A few hours after the earthquake, he gave a press conference in Ankara, the first of many.
Yesterday in the province of Kahramanmaras, near the epicenter of the earthquake, he hugged a woman among the debris. It then went further south to Hatay province on the border with Syria, where about a third of the earthquake’s deaths have been recorded.

The chaos of 1999

Erdogan no doubt remembers that the ineptitude of the authorities in Turkey’s last major earthquake, in 1999, led his party to victory three years later. Then-Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit had come under heavy criticism for neglecting to offer aid to those affected.

This time Erdogan immediately declared a state of emergency in the quake-hit areas and called for international aid. Immediately, help arrived from dozens of countries.

For experts the president can strengthen his position with a right reaction or lose everything.

“An effective response to this emergency situation can strengthen the president and his party, the AKP,” said Wolfgang Piccoli of London-based consultancy and public relations firm Teneo.

“If he fails in his reaction, Erdogan may lose the May elections”, commented Emre Çalışkan, director of the UK-based Foreign Policy Centre.

“Weakened institutions”

Outrage is growing in affected areas. Families who have lost everything complained on Tuesday of a government unable to offer them help or even rescue their relatives trapped in the rubble.

Analyst Gonul Tol, who was in Turkey at the time of the quake and lost relatives, said the anger was palpable in Hatay province.

“I can’t believe that (Erdogan) didn’t feel her because the level of indignation, the rage, I saw it with my own eyes. I’m sure it will have an impact,” noted the director of the Turkey program at the US-based Middle East Institute.

In 1999, he continued, civil society had worked tirelessly to help victims. But this time there are fewer organizations because Erdogan dissolved several after the failed coup attempt in 2016.

“Twenty years later, we are no better off,” commented Toll. “Erdogan not only weakened state institutions, but also Turkish civil society.”

“Favourable” media

However, Erdogan is not the target of criticism from the mass media, experts point out, which gives him an advantage over his opponents.

The media reported very little on the problem of poor construction, after many buildings collapsed due to the earthquake, even some that had been erected less than a year before.

But the government has established new urban planning rules since 1998.

“The opposition complains that the increased number of deaths is not only due to the earthquake, but also in poor quality buildings that were erected without a proper regulatory framework”, emphasized Tsaliscan.

In 1999 the press had criticized the authorities’ slow reaction, but not now.

“The fact that the national media is largely favorable to him means that Erdogan will manage the official narrative and may benefit from the situation,” pointed out Adeline Van Hutte, adviser on Europe at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

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