The time when religion and region of origin, defining factors of civil society in Nigeria, were supporting factors was short. In the 2019 elections, in an unprecedented way, they were on the sidelines. Now, for the election on the 25th, these two elements have returned to the center of the political melting pot.
The trigger for dissatisfaction was provoked by the governing party Congress of Progressives. Breaking with a tradition of presenting a ticket with a Christian and a Muslim candidate, the party announced a pairing of two Muslims from the north of the country for president and vice president.
The announcement sparked massive criticism from Christian communities, who saw themselves as marginalized, and helped Peter Obi, from the Labor Party, to reap important political capital —representative of an unprecedented third way, he is the only Christian on the front line of this election race year.
Winning the election by interrupting the hegemony of traditional acronyms is not easy. To win, you need to get 25% of the valid votes and finish ahead in two-thirds of the country’s 36 states and in the capital, Abuja. The governing party owns 22 of the states, which helps to scale its strength.
Dissatisfaction mirrors another challenge that stands out in elections: violence. According to a report by the NGO Portas Abertas, Nigeria is the country that kills the most Christians: there were 5,014 in 2022, a number that represents almost 90% of all deaths of adherents of that religion in the 50 countries analyzed by the NGO.
But that’s not the only problem. In the last year, more than 4,000 violent cases, such as bomb attacks and shootings, left almost 11,400 people dead in the country, according to a monitor developed by the Armed Conflict Localization Project and the Center for Democracy and Development ( CDD).
“Insecurity is rampant across Nigeria, with Islamist insurgencies in the northeast, banditry in the northwest, separatists in the southeast and clashes between farmers and pastoralists in the central states,” says Uche Igwe, visiting fellow at the London School of Economics.
The scenario is an unfolding of the actions of terrorist groups, such as Boko Haram and the Islamic State, as well as community conflicts involving disputes over arable land, in addition to episodes of separatists in the Biafra region, the scene of a civil war from 1967 to 1970 .
President Muhammadu Buhari’s failure to tackle the violence has catapulted discontent, says Idayat Hassan, director of the CDD. “The country has made itself a rule of law, not a rule of law [um jogo de palavras com os termos “rule of law” e “rule by law”, em inglês]which allows impunity.”
Two of the most recent cases that shocked the country were an attack on a church in the city of Owo, in June, which left more than 50 dead and, months earlier, in March, the action on a train in Abuja, in which at least seven people were killed, and dozens of passengers kidnapped.
Episodes like this multiply. On the last day 3, 41 people died in a confrontation in the state of Katsina, in the north of the country, homeland of Buhari. A gang stole cattle and sheep from farmers in the region, and a group of vigilantes mobilized to chase the men, which ended in an exchange of gunfire.
According to Igwe, more than 20 governments in the north of the country are now controlled by insurgent groups. “Technically, they cannot be considered Nigerian territory, and the question that remains is how they will participate in the elections”, says the researcher, who is divided between Abuja and London.
“It means that the fight against insecurity has not been successful, which is why so many Nigerians are asking what the current candidates will do differently”, he adds. In general, the candidates propose to increase the number of police officers, something that Igwe and Hassan say has already proved to be ineffective.
Widespread violence is also leading to a growing exodus in Nigeria, now the sixth most populous country in the world with 223.8 million people. According to UNHCR, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, there are at least 400,000 Nigerian refugees worldwide, especially in countries like neighboring Niger and Cameroon. There are also 3.1 million people internally displaced by conflicts.
Nigerian migration is also significant to Brazil. Data obtained by Sheet together with the Ministry of Justice show that, in the last ten years, at least 2,244 Nigerians have applied for refuge in the country — thus being the eighth nationality with the most requests, behind Venezuela, Haiti, Cuba, Angola, China, Bangladesh and Senegal. In 2022, there were 513 requests from Nigerians, the highest number in the historical series.
Considered the most important election in Nigeria’s recent history, the current elections are also marked by a slice of the population that goes to the polls with the hope of rescuing democracy.
Today the country is considered by institutes such as the Swedish V-Dem an electoral autocracy – it has multiparty elections, but falls short in other pillars of democracy. Since 2015, important indicators such as the presence of clean elections, freedom of association for parties and NGOs, freedom of expression and availability of alternative sources of information have been limited in the African giant.
Corruption is also significant. In the most recent Corruption Perceptions Index, released by the NGO Transparency International in January, the country appears with a score of 24 – the closer to 0, the worse, and the closer to 100, the better. Thus, Nigeria is ranked 150 on a list that ranks 180 nations, from the least corrupt, Denmark, to the most, Somalia. Brazil is 94th.
With a wealth of experience honed over 4+ years in journalism, I bring a seasoned voice to the world of news. Currently, I work as a freelance writer and editor, always seeking new opportunities to tell compelling stories in the field of world news.
