Threats from Moscow and Minsk have risen sharply in the past two months. The actions taken by the two countries, according to reports, seem to be burdening the countries of Central and Eastern Europe.
It is characteristic that lately a hybrid operation is being carried out against many countries in Europe, which includes immigration with weapons and “information war”. Concerns are also growing that Russia may intensify its aggression against Ukraine. There is a common denominator to all these issues – Russia’s growing hostility to the West.
Poland is now the main target of a mass influx of immigrants orchestrated by the regime of Alexander Lukashenko, the powerful Belarussian man who’s heavily dependent on Russian leader Vladimir Putin for power. Earlier this year, the focus of Lukashenko’s hybrid operation was Lithuania and Latvia, but that focus has shifted.
The numbers speak for themselves once again. In 2021, the Polish border guard reported 40,000 attempts to enter our country illegally from Belarus, out of just 120 such attempts in 2020. The migration route – clearly artificial – to the West via Belarus is obviously a creation of Belarus services. Poland is currently facing “a creeping conflict”.
Although the number of efforts is declining, groups of migrants continue to break out at the border, often reaching the point where they clash with Polish police patrols and border guards. In each such conflict, the migrants were “hand in hand” with the Belarusians as they attacked with stones and scattered rubble, logs, wood and metal poles that were uprooted from the border fence.
As a result, few Polish soldiers, police and border guards have been injured several times since the beginning of the crisis. It is also common for attackers to use lasers, strobe lights and tear gas to disrupt Polish police patrols. Belarus’s services continue to make these escalating challenges at the border.
Although this is an immigration crisis designed and created by Lukashenko in an effort to destabilize not only Poland, but the entire eastern side of NATO and the European Union, it is not about immigration. Nor is it about Lukashenko himself. According to international analysts, these actions constitute the Kremlin’s anti-Western strategy. The arming of migrants by the regime in Minsk is just one of the many elements of Russia’s long-term and long-term plan to divide the societies and states of Central and Eastern Europe, but above all to undermine the unity of NATO and the EU.
Lukashenko would not even dare to organize and carry out such a large-scale operation against the West without the approval and support of his political patron in the Kremlin. And it is not the government in Minsk, but that of Moscow that will try to politically capitalize on the crisis created on its behalf by the Belarussian regime.
Russia has already begun to present itself as a possible mediator in the crisis. Russian “help” to rectify the situation always has a price. The most likely price in this case would be concessions to the Kremlin. The difficult part is that the benefits that Russia would derive from its “mediation” could actually offer it even more opportunities and a better position to destabilize Europe.
This is exactly why the Russian authorities are doing everything they can to remain low profile and remain hidden behind Lukashenko’s active hand. In the official message, the Kremlin political elites pretend to have nothing to do with the crisis on the Belarus-EU border. However, the Russian responsibility, from the beginning, is indisputable.
In addition to activities aimed at destabilizing the border with Belarus, the Kremlin and Minsk are waging an “information” war against Poland. Every day, new propaganda material is published or broadcast in the media of Belarus and Russia portraying Poland as responsible for the immigration crisis. The narratives promoted by these spokespersons incorrectly imply that Warsaw seeks to increase border tensions, to achieve political gains through the crisis, and to systematically violate international law. Belarusian and Russian propagandists and top officials are actively involved in reinforcing these “false allegations”, which is a constant feature of the propaganda activities of both regimes.
Poland is facing a border crisis complemented by an extensive campaign of misinformation and propaganda. It is typical of Russia to take both informational and political actions against the countries on the east side of NATO. This is how the Kremlin seeks to achieve its strategic goals, which include boosting the US presence in Central and Eastern Europe and permanently reducing the Alliance’s security level in the region.
It is noted that Russia’s military doctrine presupposes that information warfare efforts and the promotion of misinformation can be used as part of military operations. Ukraine is the best proof of how Russia’s information war activities and real, tangible military aggression are intertwined.
The mobilization of large numbers of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine is another point of concern. It is worth noting something that may seem obvious, but is often overlooked – that Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and has not stopped waging war in Ukraine since.
It is difficult to predict in the short term whether the gathering of 90,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border is a prelude to another major offensive on Ukrainian soil. This must be monitored closely and on an ongoing basis. But these moves must definitely be seen as an element of information warfare and intimidation. Their goal is to make Kiev abandon its Euro-Atlantic ambitions and make the West forget about Ukraine. People need to watch Russia’s actions and not be surprised as they were in 2014. And, if necessary, people need to work out a common, strong response – which will be painful for the Kremlin.
military.com
Follow Skai.gr on Google News
and be the first to know all the news
.
